Alberta Election 2019: A UCP Landslide

It did not take long for the news agencies to declare that Jason Kenney's United Conservative Party had won the election held yesterday. I got an alert on my phone at 8:38, less than half an hour after the first results had come in.

I was not surprised to see the UCP form the government, and I think most people felt that was coming. However, they did much better than I anticipated. As of writing, they have won or are leading in 63 seats province-wide. They were able to expand their share of the popular vote beyond the 53% threshold hit by the PCs and WRP in the previous election. They were able to win seats all over Alberta, and often crushed the NDP in ridings some suspected to be closer. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, they crushed the opposition in general.

The Liberals won zero seats and got less than 1% of the vote. The Alberta Party won zero seats, though they got 9% of the vote. Perhaps most hilariously, the Freedom Conservative Party was utterly destroyed as a serious political entity - winning zero seats and getting fewer votes across the province than the Alberta Independence Party. Their leader, Derek Fildebrandt, was totally humiliated, repudiated, whatever you like - coming in a distant 3rd place with only 7.7% percent of the vote, and only slightly ahead of the Alberta Party, in his home riding.

Accordingly, the UCP have only to face a much reduced NDP in the legislature for the foreseeable future. It's my belief that this is the best possible outcome for them, as they will have an easier time dodging and dismissing criticism from the NDP than a coalition of other parties.

Whither the Alberta Party, and everybody else?

Further, the UCP may not need worry about the Alberta Party drawing away support in the elections to come. Though the Alberta Party was able to quadruple it's support in the popular vote, this wasn't enough to translate to seats, or even many strong showings. Greg Clark, the first person to be elected as an AP MLA, was handily defeated in Calgary-Elbow, coming in 2nd place with 32% of the vote. As far as I could tell, only party leader Stephen Mandel and former MLA Rick Fraser broke 20% support in their ridings. It is hard to foresee how the Alberta Party could build upon their support without even one MLA in the legislature. They will have no more profile, no more media coverage; no more attention at all really for at least for four more years!

So now that the election is over, the best insight we can get into the future may come from the Q2 and especially Q3 financial disclosure reports to Elections Alberta. I anticipate the UCP and NDP will maintain their support, at least relative to each other, but the real question I anticipate is what happens to the supporters of the other parties.

For reference, the Alberta Liberals raised $174,000 in 2018. The Alberta Party raised almost $600,000 in the same year. The Freedom Conservatives managed to draw almost $40,000. Curiously, no numbers were available for the Alberta Independence Party. But it's worth noting none of these numbers reflect any fundraising in 2019 - and the monetary support that went the Liberals and Alberta Party was pretty considerable, nonetheless. Where does this money go? Into the big parties, or into somebody else? Or does it stay in their pockets?

There are certainly more things to consider in the days to come. Thanks for reading!