With the disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine a beefy 25 days old, and almost all their first day objectives yet to be met, serious leaders world wide are going to have to answer a deeply uncomfortable question: what if Russia loses? Is this a good thing? Yes... but how we handle the aftermath of this event could be more significant than the war itself. For good or ill, Russia is a cornerstone of the world political system. Given its economic weakness, its power and influence rested upon its significant military powers. Though their combat experiences often fell in the category of the shambolic, it is important to note that the Russians didn't lose anywhere or to anyone. In fact, their intervention in Syria was almost certainly effective and decisive. Yet, despite all their manpower, technology, weapons and planes, it appears a demoralized Russian army is marching to defeat in the fields of Ukraine. The world will not be the same because of it.
I don't want to focus on why that is happening - the reasons why are quite plain. It's certainly not a miracle. Instead, I'd rather spend some time focusing on the ramifications of a Russian defeat in their near abroad, an event that could, ironically, create peace in Europe and new bipolar world divided between Chinese and western civilizations.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has succeeded in maintaining a network of client and vassal states in territories either adjacent to it, like Belarus, Abkhazia or Kazakhstan, or further abroad in Moldova (Transnistria), Libya, Syria or Serbia. For the most part these states are small, dysfunctional and isolated, and could not survive without Russian power backing them. So what do they do?
In the case of the European examples listed above, this will be a glorious and long awaited opportunity to normalize their internal politics and pivot towards the European Union, the world's third largest economic force. Russian interference prevented this from happening to Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus and Moldova, and thanks to the War these states (with the exception of Belarus) are likely to quickly see their relations with the West improve dramatically, with great effect on political and economic stability. Belarus, assuming Lukashenko falls in the wake of this conflict - which is likely - will also try to integrate itself further. Serbia, the only state which has willingly aligned itself with Russia, will be adrift and surrounded by potential enemies. Its people will have to accept that it is a part of Europe, and that they will be better off for it than trying to expand their territory.
The loss of Russian influence will be felt far and wide. Russian allies in the Middle East are now sending troops to Ukraine to help bolster the failing effort of their benefactor. It remains to be seen how many Libyan and Syrian mercenaries can and will be fielded by the Russians, but one can assume these forces will perform terribly.
