The New Democratic
Party of Alberta
Nobody can say that the NDP
were going to have an easy path to re-election. Only the most diehard partisans
even argued that the chances for their re-election were good. Polling before
the writ placed the NDP as the choice of less than a third of Albertans – still
a historically strong showing for the provincial NDP, to be sure, but a rather
toothless amount of support against the massive public support for the UCP.
One-third of support doesn’t translate to a third of the seats; the NDP looked
at the possibility of being a rather small big fish in a barely bigger
opposition pond.
Further,
the Alberta Party and the Liberals would not just go away, potentially drawing
support away from the NDP in many key ridings.
However,
the NDP embarked on the campaign outwardly aiming to win. A strong campaign,
with some good fortune in terms of the strength and distribution of support,
could still mean an either strong opposition, or even a narrowly won victory.
Anaemic campaigns by their opponents might even translate to gains to make up
for losses elsewhere.
Prospects
The NDP
would need a very strong campaign, mixed with some good fortune, to retain
government. At the beginning of the campaign, however, the NDP were looking at
the following:
- - Winning most of the seats within the city of Edmonton;
- - Retaining a handful of seats outside of Edmonton;
- - Retaining much of their voter support from the previous election; and
- - Forming the opposition to the government.
The Campaign
The NDP
campaign has not had the strong campaign it needed to completely close the lead
the UCP had over them at the beginning. However, they have been aided by relatively
poor campaigns from the UCP an even the Alberta Party. Accordingly, they have
accrued support throughout the campaign. It is uncertain how much this added
support will translate into seats. It is unlikely that it is enough to form the
government, but now the NDP looks like it could form the strongest opposition
to a government in Alberta since the Liberals in 1993.
Likely Results
-
The NDP will win 25-33 seats in the election; of
these
o
They will win the majority of the seats in the city
of Edmonton, possibly sweeping them;
o
They will win anywhere from 5-10 of the seats in
Calgary, particularly along Crowchild Trail (traditionally Liberal seats) and
in North-Central and Northeast Calgary.
o
They will likely hold on to a few seats outside
of the big cities, particularly Lethbridge-West.
-
In terms of placement in the election results,
the NDP can expect
o
To maintain vote shares relative to their
results in 2015
o
Form the opposition in the legislature.
The Alberta Liberals
The
Alberta Liberal party comes here, in third place, by virtue of having received
more votes in the last election than the parties that follows. However, that
vote total, counted on May 5, 2015, does nothing to represent the terrible
momentum and events that belied the Alberta Liberals in the succeeding four
years, not mention the previous seven, which had seen their share of the vote
collapse from 25% to 4%.
Their
one seat in the legislature placed them in a tie with the Alberta Party and
Freedom Conservatives. However, their one MLA, the respected David Swann,
finally decided to take his well-earned retirement, something neither Greg
Clark of the Alberta Party or Derek Fildebrandt were prepared to do.
Further,
his resignation brought about an embarrassing leadership contest, between the
Johnny-come-lately and eventual, narrow winner David Khan, and current Alberta
Party operative Kerry Cundal, who ran on the platform of merging the Alberta
Liberals with the Alberta Party. Less than two thousand votes were cast, resulting
in a narrow victory for Khan and the Liberal diehards.
Following
this landmark leadership contest, the Liberals had byelection to make Don
Quixote proud. With Jason Kenney returning to Alberta from Ottawa to seek a
seat, long-term PC MLA Dave Rodney resigned to offer him his riding, one of the
safest in the province. The Liberals, for some reason, decided to make a
statement and poured a significant amount of their capital into the byelection,
with Liberal leader Khan running against the favourite, Kenney, and coming in
third.
They
entered the 2019 election with very little momentum, a poor fundraising
situation, and almost no media profile. The Liberals were able to scrape
together 50-something candidates across the province for the election (generally
in the south), but they will undoubtedly be content if the leader, Khan,
retains their last, Calgary-Mountainview, seat.
Prospects
Were
the Liberals to enjoy a strong campaign, they could probably hope for the
following:
- - A win in Calgary-Mountainview; and
- - An increase in vote totals (62,153) and share (4.19%) from 2015.
The Campaign
David
Khan arguably had the best debate performance of any of the party leaders in
the Leader’s Debate. However, this, and a number of high-profile policy
proposals, have done nothing to increase their odds of success or survival.
Polls consistently place them below their 2015 vote share of 4% - often as low
as 1% of intended voters, and that’s even with David Khan competitive in
Calgary-Mountainview. However, he seems to be polling in third – albeit a
strong third – but third nonetheless. A loss here, and that bad, likely signals
the death of the party, as unlike the 1970s (when they had no seats), they were
at least the strongest progressive voice in town. With the NDP becoming the
established progressive party, this is no longer the case, and the reason for
their existence disappears.
Likely Results
-
Alberta Liberals will win zero seats in the
election.
o
David Khan will come in third in Calgary-Mountainview.
This will be their highest placement province-wide.
-
Share of the vote, in proportional and absolute
terms, will continue its decline.
The Alberta Party
The
election of Greg Clark in 2015 was a watershed moment. A new political party took
on a government cabinet minister, in a safe seat, and handily defeated them.
Then, that new MLA proved to be one of the hardest working people in the
Legislature. His feats of promotion, for example, giving interviews in Calgary
and Edmonton the same day, made the Alberta Party the most hyped political
party in the province – even more than the UCP. MLAs were crossing the floor to
join it – MacPherson from the NDP, Fraser from the PCs, and there were rumours
of more to come. Then it all got thrown away.
“Capitalizing”
on their momentum, the Alberta Party decided a leadership convention was just
the thing to raise party profile and fundraising further. Clark was out. Kara
Levis, Rick Fraser (who referred to the event by accident as the PC
leadership), and Stephen Mandel, were in. The latter won, and witnessed all the
momentum the party possessed disappear.
In the
succeeding years, Mandel has been taking a knee when he hasn’t been going
through the motions. The Party profile steadily diminished to the point where
the Alberta Party began the election having basically taken a weak third place
from the Liberal Party in preference, but only because they had shed more
supporters than the Alberta Party!
That
said, this election, the Alberta Party was running a candidate in every riding,
and were getting much more coverage than the other fringe parties. They stand
to grow in the coming election. They must hope it’s enough.
Prospects
With a
strong campaign and some luck, the Alberta Party could look forward to:
-
Winning two seats (Clark and Mandel);
-
Expanding share of the vote to double digits;
-
Strong third, or even second place showings
throughout the province; and
-
Eventual merger with the Alberta Liberals.
The Campaign
Unfortunately
for the Alberta Party, the campaign was a continuation of the inertia of the
post-leadership-convention days. Mandel was largely unable to recapture the
attention that Clark once had, though the Leader’s Debate brought the party a
decent amount of attention. Alienation from the UCP and NDP, anger and
dissatisfaction among voters have undoubtedly raised the Alberta Party’s
fortunes in the latter half of the campaign, as shown in polling. However, this
growing support is far too little create growth (in seats), no less secure Greg
Clark’s re-election. However, Greg Clark probably will be re-elected, and he’s
the right person to harness whatever goodwill and momentum the Alberta Party
has after the election.
Likely Results
-
Greg Clark will be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow;
-
Share of the vote will go up vs. 2015 (they got
2.29%, and didn’t run in every riding. This is pretty much a certainty);
-
Stephen Mandel resigns as leader.
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