That Job Killing Carbon Tax

So the latest jobs numbers for the country came out today. You might be surprised, given that the Postmedia chain took its sweet time getting the good news out the public. You would think such exciting news would merit coverage, but instead it took them some hours to follow up what was front page with the CBC. Given their headline, I have to think they were quite busy this morning trying to put a negative spin on events.

Regardless, the news thus: Alberta added 20,000 full-time jobs last month. Saskatchewan, led by the second coming, Brad Wall, on the other hand showed job losses. And not by a little, either. Over 5000 jobs lost in that province in March. Ouch. Adjusted for the population, Saskatchewan lost as much as Alberta gained. The new budget cuts to jobs probably hadn't even been factored in yet.

So why do these things matter?

Since the right-wing media in the country has decided that Brad Wall is the face they want to present to all Canadians on how one does things right, and Rachel Notley is the embodiment of all that is bad, it's important to note the recent divergence. Yes, both provinces rose and fell in parallel with oil. Now, though, two and a half years after the recession began, Alberta is starting to show an improving economy.

Alberta is showing a significant budget deficit, it is true, but that is because the NDP of all people decided that, alongside keeping taxes the lowest in the country, was of prime importance. Saskatchewan, with the second highest tax rate west of the Ottawa River, also is showing a budget deficit too, which when adjusted for population and economic size, is comparable to Alberta's. They chose to cut jobs and raise taxes - a pair of options no Albertan party would contemplate together (at least right now). Where that will lead, one can easily surmise, is for yet another month of job losses once Saskatchewan's new budget takes effect, and perhaps a deeper recession.

Ultimately, it is worth proclaiming that the prophecies of doom emanating from Alberta's one dimensional news market are falling on their face in turn like the historic doomsday dates of bygone years. Higher taxes and a carbon tax are not holding the province back, no less pushing it backwards. Rather they are contributing to a better budget situation in an expanding province. This is great news, and will be difficult for the opposition to argue against when the next election comes.

A by-election full of surprises!

Really!

Wouldn't you think so?

After weeks about hearing from fake news sites about how unpopular Justin Trudeau is (90% disapproval and all), the Liberals handily won the three by-elections in Ontario and Quebec, in each case winning a majority of the vote. The Conservatives destroyed all opposition in what are likely the two most conservative urban ridings left in the whole country.

By elections are good opportunities for the weak to appear strong, as the usually poor turnout means surprises can be had in store, like when the Liberals and Greens both nearly beat the Conservative candidate in Calgary-Centre in 2013. No such thing happened this past Monday. Why don't we break down the numbers, anyway, for fun!

National Party Results

New Democratic Party Results

• Total Votes: 12 259
• Placings: 2nd place (Ottawa-Vanier), 3rd elsewhere. 
• Strongest riding: Ottawa-Vanier, 2nd place, 8557 votes (69.8% of the total national NDP vote).
• Ridings wherein the NDP received less than 1000 votes: 3.

Conservative Party of Canada Results

• Total Votes: 57 606
• Votes outside of the city of Calgary: 15 769 (27.4% of total Conservative vote nationally)
• Placings: wins in Calgary-Heritage and Calgary Midnapore, 2nd place in two ridings, and third in Ottawa-Vanier.
• Worst showing: Saint-Laurent, 2nd place with 3 784 votes.

Liberal Party of Canada

• Total Votes: 47 376
• Votes within the city of Calgary: 10 839 (22.9% of total Liberal vote nationally)
• Placings: 3 wins and two second place finishes.

The Green Party of Canada

• Total Votes: 4062
• Placings: 3rd (Saint-Laurent), 4th elsewhere.
• Strongest riding: Saint-Laurent, with 1548 votes and beating the NDP candidate there.
• Worst vote total: Calgary-Heritage with less than 2% of the vote.

Largest Wins

By Vote

1. Calgary-Midnapore: Stephanie Kusie, CPC,  22 454
2. Calgary-Heritage: Bob Benzen, CPC, 19 383
3. Ottawa-Vanier: Mona Fortier, LPC, 15 195

By Percentage of Popular Vote

1. Calgary-Midnapore: Stephanie Kusie, CPC, 77.2%
2. Calgary-Heritage: Bob Benzen, CPC, 71.5%
3. Saint-Laurent: Emmanuella Lambropoulos, LPC, 59.1%

Conclusions

The Conservative Party did deceptively well during this slate of by-elections. I don't want to sound dismissive. They won a plurality of the votes and 40% of the available seats, whereas in the last federal election they did considerably worse on both measures. However, when I mean deceptive, I mean that they received pretty much the bulk of their support in just the two ridings in south Calgary. Looking outside of this area that runs along Macleod Trail, the Conservatives did only marginally better than the NDP, and got almost as many votes the NDP and Greens together.

The Liberals did better in the east and worse in Calgary than they probably expected. To receive less than 25% of the vote in both Calgary ridings, during a by-election is surprising. However, they won local majorities in the other three.This, I believe, indicates some strength in Trudeau's brand in these areas, coupled with weakness in the NDP and Conservatives while they go through the motions of getting new party leaders.

That is probably the biggest lesson, if indeed there is any, from these last by-elections. The incumbent party with a popular leader will trump the leaderless opposition. What will be more interesting is how the NDP and CPC perform once their parties have leaders. An NDP lead by a Quebecker might do better than fourth in Saint-Laurent; and a CPC led by someone like Kellie Leitch will likely do worse in ridings like Markham or Ottawa.

Thanks for reading. I would appreciate your thoughts.