Though this is normally a politics blog, I have decided to release you ever so temporarily from your torment and suffering to indulge another passion of mine - thinking about Canadian Sports! Oh bliss! Oh sweet release!
Those of you who know me personally know I'm a Canadian sports fan. The CFL is my favourite league to watch, and in my life, I've enjoyed the success of Canadian teams and athletes in other sports. I have been especially struck by patriotism when Canadians have decided to start their own sports leagues. The first I can recall was the Canadian Baseball League, which, for one of my teenage years, flashed in and out of being, folding before the finish of its first and only season.
More inspiring has been the recent success of the Canadian Premier League. To my regret, I have been unable to attend a match yet, but I look forward to walking down 194th to the stadium at Spruce Meadows when the league plays again. If, the league plays again.
In this post, I would like to discuss the obstacles to the success of Canadian leagues, and how, I think, they can over come them.
To me, the biggest issue in Canada is our geography. Our major centres are separated by hundreds of miles - each - and the cost of travel between them is incredibly expensive. However, to be a "national" sport (and taken seriously), one needs a presence spread across multiple time zones. Otherwise, you are regional, or provincial - not to be taken seriously by the national media - and all media is "national." So, we had the example of the Canadian Baseball League, which had eight teams in five provinces, three time zones, two languages, and, technically, separated by an ocean (fine - it's just the Salish Sea, or as they called it back then, the Strait of Georgia).
Due to the presence of established ball clubs in Vancouver, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Quebec City, the CBL's premiere franchise cities were in Montreal and Calgary. All other CBL cities had populations below 400,000 - sometimes 200,000. To make matters worse, the Montreal franchise was never able to actually play in Montreal, instead spending its half-season in Sherbrooke. In theory, there is no problem with the selection of cities the league found itself in. They were all reasonably sized, regional centres with airports and a history of baseball fandom. However, the league couldn't attract sponsors, viewers, or fans, and collapsed after only a few dozen games.
For more info on this, here's an article from the Tyee: https://thetyee.ca/News/2004/04/05/Empty_Field_of_Dreams/
Anyway, one of the cardinal sins of the CBL was its ignorance of Canada's fundamental geographic problem: you need big money to overcome our great distances. The CBL had money, but nowhere near enough to cover business and baseball. It was the marquee Canadian business flop until Target. The Canadian Premier League, seemingly, has money, and is decentralized enough so that losses aren't overwhelming or concentrated.
The CPL has also had success luring "minor" Canadian soccer teams on-side; Edmonton played in a rival league, once, and Ottawa disappeared from a rival league, folded, for another club to replace them, and this time in the CPL. Their ambitions have been both higher and humbler, too. The CPL knows it can't bring Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal onside (yet), but its choice of host cities has been a top-notch complement to the MLS clubs. Further, they didn't go overboard with their choice of cities - though Halifax is distant, it is by a major airport, and all of its rival club cities are major regional hubs. Further, the Halifax club has been a raging (business) success.
Further, soccer teams are relatively cheap in terms of roster size, support staff, and equipment relative to many other sports. Hopefully, this will help ensure their long term success. Another element to this success will be further expansion - not just to promote the league in more cities, but to reduce travel costs between games, as well. The Canadian Junior Hockey Leagues function as well as they do thanks to: low salaries; long season; and low travel cost from short distances. Any successful Canadian league will have to have some combination of those three to make it.
So, on to the next indulgence: expansion discussion!
Here's how an expanded CPL could look to take advantage of geographic density. This could apply to start-up leagues in sports like Rugby, baseball, or just about anything else. You want geographic proximity and density to succeed. They give you a fanbase, and they give you rivalries. The CBL, for all its hype, lacked any natural rivalries. The following combination of cities or divisions may provide it. As a last note, which Soccer purists may hate, but relegation is an expense Canada simply cannot afford. Anyway:
Atlantic Division
This region is densely populated, but the most rural region of Canada. There aren't many cities that possess the combination of a large population, good demographic and economic prospects, or transportation connections. That leaves us with the following conclusion, that a professional league could have four teams in the following cities:
1. Halifax: the region's largest city and most important centre. It's growth is cancelling out the decline of the rural parts of the province, and may soon feature half the provincial population (undoubtedly, it is already home to the majority of the provincial economy).
2. Moncton: third largest regional city; fast growing centre of the Acadian population and New Brunswick's most significant city. Connected by land to Halifax and Saint John, and features a great, new stadium.
3. Saint John: largest centre of southern New Brunswick, and fourth largest in the region. It has been stagnating for some decades, but remains the business capital of the province.
4. St. John's, NFLD: second largest city in the region, and fast growing. Already about half the provincial population is within its CMA. Also, St. John's is fairly wealthy and home to a shocking amount of large, successful businesses. It's main issue is that it is expensive to fly to, though, and the ferry is long and expensive. Historically, teams in Newfoundland (hockey, especially), have had tonnes of support and still flopped, though the ongoing success of their Rugby team, the Rock, should inspire.
The relative "weakness" of other Atlantic cities, in terms of population stagnation/decline, size, economic power, and geographic isolation, mean there are few opportunities for feeder clubs in the region. However, should a league be a success, Prince Edward Island, Fredericton, King's County (NS), and Cape Breton may make sense as feeder club locations.
Quebec Division - East
Quebec is a large province, but its population is large and concentrated along the St. Lawrence River. This concentration has allowed the province to enjoy excellent, road, rail and air links - and all within a few hours drive from one end to the other. Further, the population is large enough that there remain numerous population centres, each with local identities, that are large enough to support teams outside of Montreal. This could allow for two competitive divisions operating in the lower end of Lower Canada, and another around Montreal. Let's look east, first.
1. Quebec City: second largest city, fast growing in population and economic power. There's a void the Nordiques left that needs filling.
2. Saguenay: though stagnant for the last few decades, it remains a major regional centre. Also, investments in hydro, natural resources and aluminum should keep the area viable for time to come.
3. Sherbrooke: the largest city in the Estrie region, it's a hub of over 200,000.
4. Trois Rivieres: also relatively stagnant, but still a major hub. Proximity to Quebec City and Montreal is an incredibly strong asset. During the last federal election, local politicians desired a high speed rail link to connect them to those centres. If Spain is an indication, such a link would dramatically revitalize the city and ensure its long-term prosperity.
Quebec Division - West
1. Blainville: representing the North Shore communities around Montreal
2. Laval: technically Quebec's third largest city, it is well connected to the rest of the province and has a good local identity.
3. Longueuil: represent the population of the region to the south of Montreal.
4. Gatineau: large, growing, and would make for an awesome rivalry with Ottawa.
Ontario
Southern Ontario is Canada's economic and population heartland. It is densely populated and old. In the Canadian Premier League, there are three clubs: Hamilton, York and Ottawa, which is similar geographically to the CFL which has clubs is roughly the same locations. Even the NHL has considered teams in those three cities (substitute York for Toronto) or has, historically. Growth spilling out from Toronto, plus the development of the tri-city region means Ontario could host a multitude of clubs in large centres, all in close proximity - a luxury enjoyed in few parts of Canada.
North Division
1. Ottawa: National capital, second largest city in the province.
2. Kingston: relatively stagnant, but still vital.
3. Barrie: fast-growing exurb of Toronto.
4. Sudbury
Centre Division
1. Brampton
2. Missisauga
3. Scarborough
4. York
South Division
1. Hamilton
2. London
3. Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge
4. Niagara
Prairie Division
The Canadian prairies are the largest geographic region that any league will have to face. A drive from Edmonton to Winnipeg is roughly fourteen hours. It's another twelve to either Vancouver (from Edmonton) or Thunder Bay (from Winnipeg). Also, its population is very highly concentrated in the cities of Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg (according to Statistics Canada estimates, at least half of the region's population lives in these three cities and their metropolitan areas). Also, there are only five cities with populations above 200,000, meaning expansion possibilities are very limited.
However, the good news is that this area is rich, young, easy to traverse, and its major cities aren't major enough for major league teams outside of the NHL. Plus, ethnic diversity may enable lots of varied sports to thrive.
In a four team divisional set-up, you could have:
1. Calgary: largest city, richest city, and features a great airport and road connections. Sports teams have thrived here for years, with the exception of our ABA teams.
2. Edmonton: second largest and second richest, Edmonton is even better connected overland to all cities in this division. City has passionate sports fans.
3. Saskatoon (Saskatchewan): fourth largest city, but very fast growing, Saskatoon is becoming the metropole the province has always needed.
4. Winnipeg: third largest city, and featuring very stable and reliable economic and population growth, Manitoba's capital is a transport and business hub full of sports fans.
Possible Feeder Cities
1. Calgary = Lethbridge
2. Edmonton = Red Deer
3. Saskatoon = Regina
4. Winnipeg = Brandon/Westman
I know Thunder Bay is bigger, but it's very isolated, and suffering a long-term economic and population decline. A team there may not survive long, whereas Brandon has a large rural hinterland to support it.
British Columbia Division
British Columbia is large, with a strong economy and a growing population. It has three major population centres: Vancouver Island, Fraser Valley, and the Okanagan. Due to its mountainous Cordillera, the population density in the centres is very high for Canada, while also having allowed the development of some regional identities. Vancouver itself features teams in most sports leagues, but is only one of 20(?) cities in the Fraser Valley, many of which have different cultures and histories. Keeping with the four team divisional make up from earlier, I would place teams in BC (and outside of Vancouver) in:
1. Abbotsford: the hub of the region east of Vancouver, with a large, growing population and a distinct local culture.
2. Kelowna: centre of the fast-growing interior region of the Okanagan.
3. Surrey: the second city of the Fraser Valley, with a distinct local culture and identity.
4. Victoria: provincial capital and second city, hub of Vancouver Island.
Possible Feeder Cities
1. Abbotsford = Kamloops
2. Kelowna = Prince George
3. Surrey = Richmond
4. Victoria = Nanaimo
In conclusion, you have here the framework for a 32 team, 8 division league set up focusing on Canada's strongest economic, population and cultural centres - all while ignoring the centres of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal!
It may seem very pie-in-the-sky, but the survival of our junior leagues can attest that this could work. One day...
A discussion of politics, science, emerging technology, and international affairs all centred on Alberta.
Wednesday, 29 April 2020
Friday, 24 April 2020
A Big Week!
My wife and I just had our first child.
She spent the first 40 hours of her life in room 7, Unit 76, of the South Health Campus here in Calgary. We were able to sneak in just a few days before the unit was shut down because of Coronavirus (not that it had it - but that the hospital was being re-rolled).
She had her first drive on the Deerfoot, and her first radio station was 660AM, because "daddy likes the news."
Our baby has had lots of trips up and down Macleod Trail for appointments.
Her first visitor was my father, who watched her from outside the parlour. Her maternal grandma, grandpa, and aunt soon visited. Her aunt had driven all the way from Saskatoon just for the occasion!
Her first trip was a social distancing visit to the same, by the river. Then she got to meet my sister over by the new Costco on the Tsuu-T'ina.
Her first music, aside from some pre-loaded ambient stuff on her bassinet, was country 95.3, but not for very long.
The first show she listened to (rather than watched), was Joe Pera Talks with You. Very calming. Then came the news, which generally isn't.
The first album she listened to, was Manual's "The North Shore: Bliss Out v.2.0." Very calming.
Baby's first explosion was the RV in Legacy yesterday, which she and her mother both slept through. I felt it strong. I thought somebody had hit our house!
When mommy eats beans, baby gets gas. No more beans for mommy.
She is healthy and perfect. We love her so much, and her whole family does too.
She spent the first 40 hours of her life in room 7, Unit 76, of the South Health Campus here in Calgary. We were able to sneak in just a few days before the unit was shut down because of Coronavirus (not that it had it - but that the hospital was being re-rolled).
She had her first drive on the Deerfoot, and her first radio station was 660AM, because "daddy likes the news."
Our baby has had lots of trips up and down Macleod Trail for appointments.
Her first visitor was my father, who watched her from outside the parlour. Her maternal grandma, grandpa, and aunt soon visited. Her aunt had driven all the way from Saskatoon just for the occasion!
Her first trip was a social distancing visit to the same, by the river. Then she got to meet my sister over by the new Costco on the Tsuu-T'ina.
Her first music, aside from some pre-loaded ambient stuff on her bassinet, was country 95.3, but not for very long.
The first show she listened to (rather than watched), was Joe Pera Talks with You. Very calming. Then came the news, which generally isn't.
The first album she listened to, was Manual's "The North Shore: Bliss Out v.2.0." Very calming.
Baby's first explosion was the RV in Legacy yesterday, which she and her mother both slept through. I felt it strong. I thought somebody had hit our house!
When mommy eats beans, baby gets gas. No more beans for mommy.
She is healthy and perfect. We love her so much, and her whole family does too.
Friday, 17 April 2020
Obsessing over BC Riding Sizes
Since I discovered the controversy around the last BC Electoral Boundary Commission, I have been obsessing about the consequences for that province when the next Commission convenes in a few years. Certainly, the proverbial S will hit the F. I thought I should really dive deep and quantify the issue, based on Elections BC's public data (from 2011).
The last Commission was forced to leave three regions encompassing seventeen ridings alone when it last issued its report. It was working with census data that gave BC a population of 4.4 million, while its report allowed for the creation of two new ridings to account for growing populations around Vancouver. Dividing the population of 4.4M by 87, one should see an average population per riding of 50,574. According to my understanding of the Canadian Supreme Court's 1991 decision about electoral representation, in special circumstances, a variation of 25% from the average is permissible. This would create a "floor" of 37,931. However, no province declared more ridings "special" than BC did prior to its last redistricting, the aforementioned 17.
Below, I will present the three protected regions, their seventeen seats, populations, and winners in the last BC provincial election. NDP wins will be in italics and bolded, to stand out. Ridings with a population below the 25% threshold set by the Canadian Supreme Court will be marked with an asterisk.
North Region
1. Nechako Lakes*
Population: 27,055
Winner (2017): Liberals (54%)
2. North Coast*
Population: 22,320
Winner (2017): NDP (57%)
3. Peace River North
Population: 39,330
Winner (2017): Liberals (66%)
4. Peace River South*
Population: 26,330
Winner (2017): Liberals (76%)
5. Prince George-Mackenzie
Population: 45,300
Winner (2017): Liberals (57%)
6. Prince George-Valemount
Population: 46,575
Winner (2017): Liberals (58%)
7. Skeena*
Population: 29,570
Winner (2017): Liberals (52%)
8. Stikine*
Population: 20,240
Winner (2017): NDP (52%)
Total Ridings: 8
Total Riding Population: 256,720
Average Riding Population: 32,090
Ridings Below 25% threshold: 5
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 8/8
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 6.76
Thompson-Cariboo
1. Cariboo-Chilcotin*
Population: 33,140
Winner (2017): Liberals (59%)
2. Cariboo-North*
Population: 29,255
Winner (2017): Liberals (51%)
3. Fraser-Nicola*
Population: 33,630
Winner (2017): Liberals (42%)
4. Kamloops-North Thompson
Population: 52,545
Winner (2017): Liberals (48%)
5. Kamloops-South Thompson
Population: 54,625
Winner (2017): Liberals (56%)
Total Ridings: 5
Total Riding Population: 203,195
Average Riding Population: 40,639
Ridings below 25% threshold: 3
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 3/5
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 5.35
Kootenays
1. Columbia River-Revelstoke
Population: 31,565
Winner (2017): Liberals (45%)
2. Kootenay East
Population: 39,545
Winner (2017): Liberals (57%)
3. Kootenay West
Population: 41,100
Winner (2017): NDP (60%)
4. Nelson-Creston
Population: 36,600
Winner (2017): NDP (42%)
Total Ridings: 4
Total Riding Population: 148,810
Average Riding Population: 37,202
Ridings below 25% threshold: 2
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 4/4
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 3.92
With the exception of the two Kamloops ridings, all of the protected ridings fall below the provincial average size. Further, ten of them fall below the 25% threshold. Six of these are even close to or exceed a 50% variation from the average. A variation such as this can be justifiable on the basis of geography - but just this number alone exceeds the number of protected ridings in all other provinces, combined.
Were the BC Electoral Boundaries Commission allowed to make changes based around average riding size, or even maintaining the 25% deviation, these protected regions would lose seats. The North Region could be reduced to as many as seven, or as low as five seats. The geographically smaller region of Thompson-Cariboo could be reduced to four, and the Kootenays to three. Altogether, it would be a reduction in seats of anywhere from one to five.
As the population and representation balance in BC skews ever more towards Vancouver, Victoria and the Okanagan, it seems only the infusion of a great number of seats in those regions could stop the more dramatic reduction of these protected areas.
The last Commission was forced to leave three regions encompassing seventeen ridings alone when it last issued its report. It was working with census data that gave BC a population of 4.4 million, while its report allowed for the creation of two new ridings to account for growing populations around Vancouver. Dividing the population of 4.4M by 87, one should see an average population per riding of 50,574. According to my understanding of the Canadian Supreme Court's 1991 decision about electoral representation, in special circumstances, a variation of 25% from the average is permissible. This would create a "floor" of 37,931. However, no province declared more ridings "special" than BC did prior to its last redistricting, the aforementioned 17.
Below, I will present the three protected regions, their seventeen seats, populations, and winners in the last BC provincial election. NDP wins will be in italics and bolded, to stand out. Ridings with a population below the 25% threshold set by the Canadian Supreme Court will be marked with an asterisk.
North Region
1. Nechako Lakes*
Population: 27,055
Winner (2017): Liberals (54%)
2. North Coast*
Population: 22,320
Winner (2017): NDP (57%)
3. Peace River North
Population: 39,330
Winner (2017): Liberals (66%)
4. Peace River South*
Population: 26,330
Winner (2017): Liberals (76%)
5. Prince George-Mackenzie
Population: 45,300
Winner (2017): Liberals (57%)
6. Prince George-Valemount
Population: 46,575
Winner (2017): Liberals (58%)
7. Skeena*
Population: 29,570
Winner (2017): Liberals (52%)
8. Stikine*
Population: 20,240
Winner (2017): NDP (52%)
Total Ridings: 8
Total Riding Population: 256,720
Average Riding Population: 32,090
Ridings Below 25% threshold: 5
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 8/8
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 6.76
Thompson-Cariboo
1. Cariboo-Chilcotin*
Population: 33,140
Winner (2017): Liberals (59%)
2. Cariboo-North*
Population: 29,255
Winner (2017): Liberals (51%)
3. Fraser-Nicola*
Population: 33,630
Winner (2017): Liberals (42%)
4. Kamloops-North Thompson
Population: 52,545
Winner (2017): Liberals (48%)
5. Kamloops-South Thompson
Population: 54,625
Winner (2017): Liberals (56%)
Total Ridings: 5
Total Riding Population: 203,195
Average Riding Population: 40,639
Ridings below 25% threshold: 3
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 3/5
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 5.35
Kootenays
1. Columbia River-Revelstoke
Population: 31,565
Winner (2017): Liberals (45%)
2. Kootenay East
Population: 39,545
Winner (2017): Liberals (57%)
3. Kootenay West
Population: 41,100
Winner (2017): NDP (60%)
4. Nelson-Creston
Population: 36,600
Winner (2017): NDP (42%)
Total Ridings: 4
Total Riding Population: 148,810
Average Riding Population: 37,202
Ridings below 25% threshold: 2
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 4/4
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 3.92
With the exception of the two Kamloops ridings, all of the protected ridings fall below the provincial average size. Further, ten of them fall below the 25% threshold. Six of these are even close to or exceed a 50% variation from the average. A variation such as this can be justifiable on the basis of geography - but just this number alone exceeds the number of protected ridings in all other provinces, combined.
Were the BC Electoral Boundaries Commission allowed to make changes based around average riding size, or even maintaining the 25% deviation, these protected regions would lose seats. The North Region could be reduced to as many as seven, or as low as five seats. The geographically smaller region of Thompson-Cariboo could be reduced to four, and the Kootenays to three. Altogether, it would be a reduction in seats of anywhere from one to five.
As the population and representation balance in BC skews ever more towards Vancouver, Victoria and the Okanagan, it seems only the infusion of a great number of seats in those regions could stop the more dramatic reduction of these protected areas.
Wednesday, 15 April 2020
Looking forward to the 2021 Census
The 2021 census is coming! Oh boy! Our first full census since the last Conservative Prime Minister axed it! Oh joyous!
Here, in this time of Corona, I would like to examine a few questions and possibilities I'm looking forward to being answered - or raised, with the census results next fall.
Starting from East and going West:
1) Can Nova Scotia reach 1,000,000 people?
2) Are the Atlantic Provinces going the way of Manitoba? Based on Statscan estimates, the CMAs of St. John's, NL, Charlottetown, PEI, and Halifax, Nova Scotia are already over 40% of their respective provinces' populations. Will the hit 50% or more? How will this re-balance the distribution of power in those provinces?
3) How big is the decline in the rural population, and why? Are they dying out, or is it out-migration, or a mixture of the two to blame? No Canadian region is as rural as Atlantic Canada - which carries significant cost to business and government. How quickly is it urbanizing?
4) Canada's next-most rural region: Quebec. Is it also urbanizing quicker? Is Quebec City taking more of a share in population growth?
5) Just how big is Ontario? and how big is the golden horseshoe?
6) How big is Winnipeg relative to Manitoba?
7) Is Saskatchewan joining the rest of the west with a more urbanized population?
8) What proportion of Albertans live in Calgary and Edmonton?
9) What proportion of British Columbians live in Vancouver?
10) How many people are now identifying as Metis or First Nations?
Why it Matters
1) Population growth in Atlantic Canada seems, unexpectedly, to be happening. This is a good thing, but through the lens of electoral politics, a bigger population in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick should bring their riding sizes more into the national average. The same is true of Manitoba.
2) Electoral Boundary Redistricting (Federal): the federal government will be obligated to look at Canada's federal electoral boundaries. Given the grandfather clauses which restrict the six smallest provinces from losing seats, and the fact it would be politically impossible to reduce seats in Quebec, I expect Canada will go about adding dozens of seats again. Ontario and Alberta are significantly under-represented, but so is BC, and possibly even Quebec.
Even should Canada stick to the arbitrary 111,166 quotient from the last redistricting, based on current (not next year estimates), we should see:
- BC gaining 4 seats to give a total of 46;
- Alberta gaining 6 seats, to give a total of 40;
- Ontario gaining 10 seats, to give a total of 131; and
- Quebec gaining 0 seats - unless politics intervenes.
So we have a total of twenty new seats - minimum, going all to regions west of the Ottawa River. More than that though - where do those seats go within those provinces? Without checking, I would wager all the BC seats go to the Greater Vancouver area; all the Alberta seats to Edmonton and Calgary; and all the Ontario seats to the Golden Horseshoe. We may see boundary re-alignments in the other provinces to reflect urban growth in the preceding ten years. Winnipeg, for example, has 7.5/14 of Manitoba's seats. It would not be hard to see that increase. The same may be likely in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec, where the increasing weight of their major cities should cause the consolidation of a number of rural ridings.
My modest proposal: the previous electoral boundaries commission, in my esteem, was much too conservative. Thirty new seats was a significant increase - but was so insufficient to keep up with population growth in the four gaining provinces that it was obsolete before voting started. Why do we have such a random quotient of 111,166 persons to riding? We always discuss riding sizes as being 100,000 people, so why not make that the aiming point for the ridings of the big four provinces (and it should even work for Manitoba, soon, too). Were we to do this, a new Canadian parliament would see:
- BC: nine new seats (42>51);
- Alberta: ten new seats (34>44);
- Ontario: twenty-six new seats (121>147);
- Quebec: seven new seats (78>85);
- For a new Canadian parliament with 390 seats.
This, I would think, would better reflect where the Canadian population lives, is moving to, and is doing business, without reducing the number of rural seats in the parliament. In fact, this could even result in an increase in rural ridings in Alberta, BC and Ontario, which are often joined with large urban areas due to dumping too many people into too few districts. Further, this new parliament would stand the test of time better than a more modest increase. Canada has faster population growth than most developed nations, and it tends to go to the larger provinces. Why not future proof the parliament?
3) Provincial Electoral Boundaries
The 2021 census will lead to provincial boundary re-alignments throughout Canada, and this promises to be controversial!
As parties have become divided, at least in the west, along a rural-urban axis, there will be massive opposition to change, which will be seen as partisan (even though resisting change is partisan, too). Perhaps no province better embodies this possibility than British Columbia.
2021 isn't just the census year, but it's also an election year. The BC electoral boundary commission protected a significant swath of the province from changes following the 2011 census. Accordingly, the governing BC liberals won 13 of the province's smallest 17 ridings. BC even added fewer seats to its legislature than Alberta - two compared to four, to compensate for population growth. As things stand now, urban BC ridings are very large, especially compared to those protected ridings (a spreadsheet is available on elections BC). It is clear the BC NDP needs to win the election to ensure a more equitable seat redistribution. This shouldn't be lethal to the BC Liberals - they did garner the most votes, after all, but they clearly have a lot to lose by losing a rigged system. They could certainly lose big - based on Elections BC data, and Statscan estimates, it's not hard to assume many urban BC ridings are twice the size of the worst protected ridings. BC's next electoral boundary commission may have to add many seats, re-align many, or a combination of both, to accommodate the growing population of the Fraser Valley.
Similar experiences are sure to occur throughout the country. One can only imagine how receptive the Ontario PCs will be to either expanding the Ontario Parliament or sacrificing a number of their rotten burroughs. The same is true of Alberta, where the UCP will undoubtedly be hesitant to lose seats in small-town Alberta, regions that they swept in 2019.
Here, in this time of Corona, I would like to examine a few questions and possibilities I'm looking forward to being answered - or raised, with the census results next fall.
Starting from East and going West:
1) Can Nova Scotia reach 1,000,000 people?
2) Are the Atlantic Provinces going the way of Manitoba? Based on Statscan estimates, the CMAs of St. John's, NL, Charlottetown, PEI, and Halifax, Nova Scotia are already over 40% of their respective provinces' populations. Will the hit 50% or more? How will this re-balance the distribution of power in those provinces?
3) How big is the decline in the rural population, and why? Are they dying out, or is it out-migration, or a mixture of the two to blame? No Canadian region is as rural as Atlantic Canada - which carries significant cost to business and government. How quickly is it urbanizing?
4) Canada's next-most rural region: Quebec. Is it also urbanizing quicker? Is Quebec City taking more of a share in population growth?
5) Just how big is Ontario? and how big is the golden horseshoe?
6) How big is Winnipeg relative to Manitoba?
7) Is Saskatchewan joining the rest of the west with a more urbanized population?
8) What proportion of Albertans live in Calgary and Edmonton?
9) What proportion of British Columbians live in Vancouver?
10) How many people are now identifying as Metis or First Nations?
Why it Matters
1) Population growth in Atlantic Canada seems, unexpectedly, to be happening. This is a good thing, but through the lens of electoral politics, a bigger population in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick should bring their riding sizes more into the national average. The same is true of Manitoba.
2) Electoral Boundary Redistricting (Federal): the federal government will be obligated to look at Canada's federal electoral boundaries. Given the grandfather clauses which restrict the six smallest provinces from losing seats, and the fact it would be politically impossible to reduce seats in Quebec, I expect Canada will go about adding dozens of seats again. Ontario and Alberta are significantly under-represented, but so is BC, and possibly even Quebec.
Even should Canada stick to the arbitrary 111,166 quotient from the last redistricting, based on current (not next year estimates), we should see:
- BC gaining 4 seats to give a total of 46;
- Alberta gaining 6 seats, to give a total of 40;
- Ontario gaining 10 seats, to give a total of 131; and
- Quebec gaining 0 seats - unless politics intervenes.
So we have a total of twenty new seats - minimum, going all to regions west of the Ottawa River. More than that though - where do those seats go within those provinces? Without checking, I would wager all the BC seats go to the Greater Vancouver area; all the Alberta seats to Edmonton and Calgary; and all the Ontario seats to the Golden Horseshoe. We may see boundary re-alignments in the other provinces to reflect urban growth in the preceding ten years. Winnipeg, for example, has 7.5/14 of Manitoba's seats. It would not be hard to see that increase. The same may be likely in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec, where the increasing weight of their major cities should cause the consolidation of a number of rural ridings.
My modest proposal: the previous electoral boundaries commission, in my esteem, was much too conservative. Thirty new seats was a significant increase - but was so insufficient to keep up with population growth in the four gaining provinces that it was obsolete before voting started. Why do we have such a random quotient of 111,166 persons to riding? We always discuss riding sizes as being 100,000 people, so why not make that the aiming point for the ridings of the big four provinces (and it should even work for Manitoba, soon, too). Were we to do this, a new Canadian parliament would see:
- BC: nine new seats (42>51);
- Alberta: ten new seats (34>44);
- Ontario: twenty-six new seats (121>147);
- Quebec: seven new seats (78>85);
- For a new Canadian parliament with 390 seats.
This, I would think, would better reflect where the Canadian population lives, is moving to, and is doing business, without reducing the number of rural seats in the parliament. In fact, this could even result in an increase in rural ridings in Alberta, BC and Ontario, which are often joined with large urban areas due to dumping too many people into too few districts. Further, this new parliament would stand the test of time better than a more modest increase. Canada has faster population growth than most developed nations, and it tends to go to the larger provinces. Why not future proof the parliament?
3) Provincial Electoral Boundaries
The 2021 census will lead to provincial boundary re-alignments throughout Canada, and this promises to be controversial!
As parties have become divided, at least in the west, along a rural-urban axis, there will be massive opposition to change, which will be seen as partisan (even though resisting change is partisan, too). Perhaps no province better embodies this possibility than British Columbia.
2021 isn't just the census year, but it's also an election year. The BC electoral boundary commission protected a significant swath of the province from changes following the 2011 census. Accordingly, the governing BC liberals won 13 of the province's smallest 17 ridings. BC even added fewer seats to its legislature than Alberta - two compared to four, to compensate for population growth. As things stand now, urban BC ridings are very large, especially compared to those protected ridings (a spreadsheet is available on elections BC). It is clear the BC NDP needs to win the election to ensure a more equitable seat redistribution. This shouldn't be lethal to the BC Liberals - they did garner the most votes, after all, but they clearly have a lot to lose by losing a rigged system. They could certainly lose big - based on Elections BC data, and Statscan estimates, it's not hard to assume many urban BC ridings are twice the size of the worst protected ridings. BC's next electoral boundary commission may have to add many seats, re-align many, or a combination of both, to accommodate the growing population of the Fraser Valley.
Similar experiences are sure to occur throughout the country. One can only imagine how receptive the Ontario PCs will be to either expanding the Ontario Parliament or sacrificing a number of their rotten burroughs. The same is true of Alberta, where the UCP will undoubtedly be hesitant to lose seats in small-town Alberta, regions that they swept in 2019.
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