The Conservatives, Pt. 3: The Red Tories

 Lost in all the talk of SoCons and Libertarians are the old mainstays of Canadian conservatism: the "Red Tories." What are they, you might ask? Well, they are those "light conservatives" who believe in change, but not so fast. They believe in small government, but government that still helps those who need it. They value education for preparing society for the future, and are willing to accept new people and ideas if you can convince them. They hold old, traditional values, too - like the importance of family and faith, sure, but also ideas that with power comes responsibility, and that the individual doesn't take primacy over the needs of the community (I hope this definition is acceptable). This non-ideological (pragmatic?) approach to conservatism was the dominant approach in Canada until the 1990s, when the populist Reform Party supplanted them in importance, and then absorbed the Progressive Conservative Party.

Why did it have to be so? Because with a few exceptions, the PCs didn't win elections. The Liberals ran Canada almost without pause from 1920-1984, and the Conservatives, then the Progressive Conservatives, couldn't do anything to stop it. Only with the acceptance of Quebec nationalists (later Quebec Nationalists) and the residue of the provincial Social Credit movements could the PCs finally win two majorities in a row - 1984 and 1988; the only time conservatives have done that in Canada since 1891. 

Now, it may seem like the Red Tories compromised their values for power. Some certainly did. Some joined with Reform to compete with the Liberals; others simply joined the Liberals, who were closer to their values than the Reformers (this can be seen in their traditional strongholds in Atlantic Canada, which are as close to a Liberal fortress as Alberta is to the Conservatives). However, it should be remembered that the merger was an uneasy one, and that, secondly, for many years Red Tory views were generally accepted or welcomed.

With the SoCon coup on Erin O'Toole, a blue tory masquerading as a Red one, it seems clear that this is no longer the case. Are Red Tories acceptable in the conservative coalition? Only for their votes, it would seem. They exist solely as votes in the House of Commons. Their views could not be more stark than those of the louder members of the party. So, while Conservatives bemoan the division in Canada, just a cursory search of polling data shows the division isn't national, it's political, and largely confined to their party. 

In almost any poll we see an almost even split of Conservative supporters who are for or against any issue. No other party has such a cleavage. Half of their voters think Climate Change is an issue; half do not. Half believe that "Gay Marriage" (equality) is acceptable; the other does not. Even with COVID-19, half were in favour of restrictions, and half were against the Convoy Protests. So, I think it's fair to say then that the Red Tories make up half of the party, and maybe around 15% of the electorate, but they make up easily less than half of the CPC MPs, donors or braintrust. 

Eliminating O'Toole is one thing; the MPs electing Candice Bergen, of MAGA hat fame to replace him (on an interim basis) points to an alarming reality: the CPC is going the way of the Republicans of the USA. However, the vast majority of Canadians do not, and still do not think or feel this way, just the loudest, maybe plurality of PPC and CPC supporters. We consistently see that half of the latter do not align with Trump, QAnon, Abortion Activism, or anything like that. They have a different image of conservatism in their minds and hearts. If what they see in the CPC isn't what they want, they may start looking elsewhere. Maybe to a new Progressive Conservative Party, even if they know it may not win.

We shall see. 

Northern Development 1: Churchill

 As it currently stands, Churchill is a dying, isolated town at the northern edge of Manitoba - and Canada's railroad network. It is host to two noteworthy things: polar bear tourism and a wheat export terminal. It is connected to the rest of the country by rail and air, and thanks to the former, it is the most integrated of Canada's Hudson Bay settlements. Given its strategic location and pre-existing infrastructure, it should be among the pillars of a Canadian northern strategy.

1. Public Sector initiatives

1a. The Military

Churchill's first importance in the era to come is as a strategic military base. While Churchill is removed from the region of the Northwest Passage, it could play a significant role in supporting Canadian sovereignty in that region. Given its connection to the rest of Canada through its railroad, Churchill would be the logical place for a supply depot and maintenance base for Canadian ships and aircraft, while benefiting from geographic isolation from potential conflict areas further north. 

Further, its environment provides the Canadian military with an essential training area for Arctic and northern conditions - something which it is already doing in an impermanent and inconsistent way. 

Accordingly, Churchill should be prioritized at the located of a combined Naval-Air Force-Army-Rangers base. 

What should first take shape is the refurbishment and expansion of a military airport, hand-in-hand with the development of a naval dockyard capable of docking and repairing a large number of Canadian warships. The air field would provide staging, maintenance and observation services for the region, capable of Armed, transport and surveillance missions simultaneously, while the naval yard would provide basing opportunities for the navy. Housing of families and personnel would be considered essential - this is no temporary post.

As the navy and air force establish themselves in Churchill, they can start sparing excess construction capacity and experience to allow the army to develop a permanent training centre, depot and Ranger HQ in the town. Further excess capacity can be redirected towards other new Canadian northern bases in Iqaluit, Nanisivik, and Tuktoyuktuk. 

The end stage for each service should look like this:

Navy

- Docking facilities for at least six warships;

- Repair facilities for at least one ship;

- Establishment of housing and shore facilities for the crews and their families;

- Including parts and ammunition depots.

Air Force

- Air Field and hangars for Fighters, Transports, Drones, training, and surveillance aircraft;

- Advanced radar stations and possibly air defence capability;

- Housing for crews and their families

- Depots for parts and munitions;

- A northern air training centre.

Army

- Training centre for northern operations;

- Ranger Headquarters and depot;

- Depot for training, munitions and parts; and

- Base defence force.

1b. Government services 

The new government establishments at Churchill should include Coast Guard, Fisheries and Oceans, and University services. Environmental and Railroad regulatory personnel would also need to be present. With such an investment in military and government services as listed above, there would also have to be provincial investments or support for expanded healthcare and primary/secondary education. 

A Northern University has been proposed for many years, but so far there has been very little movement towards this. Such a place in Churchill would be a logical first home for Inuit and Cree studies, and natural sciences focused on the Arctic environment, flora and fauna. A Northern Engineering program would enable Canada to develop expertise in constructing, maintaining and improving northern settlements, which will be key to growth elsewhere. Lastly, given the importance of the North to the future of the world, International Relations should also be key. 

As a final consideration, it might also make sense to renationalize the old Canadian Wheat Board, and its terminal at Churchill.

2. Private Sector initiatives

This massive public sector investment would see the movement of thousands of government employees, soldiers, their families, and the various teachers, health care workers, construction workers and others to make it possible. Accordingly, Churchill should turn into a bonanza for some time. To ensure that the boom doesn't just come and go, leaving another depressed military station like Cold Lake, there are a few initiatives that could encourage a more stable and growing economy. 

Deeper integration with the rest of Canada could be accomplished through the expansion of the local airport and railroad. More reliable movement of goods and people should encourage easier tourism and lower cost of living and travel. 

Expansion of the port to include LNG and oil export terminals could broaden the economic base of the city. Installation of cranes could also allow for ocean going merchant vessels to make stops at Churchill. A further expansion of the port could allow for dockyard facilities for Cruise ships and pleasure craft, or a fishing fleet, which could add tourist dollars and new business opportunities to the city. While there is limited potential for a commercial fishery there, some amount of fishing could help support the population. 

(Incomplete, but better than nothing)

 

NDP Fails but Opportunity Emerges: the case of Alberta

(Begun October 3rd, 2021)

Following our latest Federal election, NDP partisans have been trumpeting the claim that their party was the only party that both won more seats and got an increase in the vote compared to 2019. That is true. The People's Party gained a lot more votes, but nowhere came close to winning anything (I suspect that might be all they want, anyway). The NDP won a net of one seat, while gaining +120,000 votes. That's something. However, what is the quality of their claim? 

We can look at a lot of qualifiers. First, look at their spending, which was significantly higher than in 2019. One seat and +1.8 percentage points in the popular vote? Hmmm... then there's the fact they actually lost seats in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. No pickups, only losses. That can't be good - they're hardly a national party, especially when you consider that half their caucus is now from BC. Their traditional base in Saskatchewan seems dead, buried and cold, as are others in Northern Ontario and interior BC. 

So, given that three parties saw declines in support - Liberals, Conservatives and especially Greens, the NDP don't have much to celebrate but one: the election of Blake Desjarlais in Edmonton Griesbach. He doesn't just flip a seat, but the seat of Kerry Diotte, one of the most embarrassing MPs in the country. More significantly, he points to a possible future, one where Edmonton is more orange than blue. 

In fact, the NDP came very close to winning Edmonton Centre, too - they were within a few thousand votes in a three-way-race. Elsewhere, NDP candidates combined with Liberals would defeat the CPC everywhere but Edmonton-Wetaskiwin - an urban/rural split riding that likely won't exist during the next election. Across the province, NDP vote shares went up 7.5 points - a greater amount than the PPC and Maverick gains put together. 

Given the increasing rightward shift of the CPC, I think a reckoning is due in urban Alberta. The province votes Conservative not because of values or interests, but identity. If the conservatives continue to mutate into the Canadian version of the "Know-Nothings," what appeal will they hold for the educated, cosmopolitan and wealthy citizens of Calgary and Edmonton? Less and less, I think. 

The NDP is best poised to take advantage of the opening space in Alberta. It is, at heart, a western protest party, albeit one grounded in left-wing politics. They are not the eastern-dominated Liberals, or the rural-and-white-dominated Conservative Party. The NDP better reflects the ideals and values of the province, as seen in the growing strength and support of the provincial party. As more and more Albertans fail to see themselves reflected in the Conservative Party, we should start seeing more of them finding a home with the NDP, a party comfortable with diversity, science, and complexity, like most Albertans. 

Were I an NDP strategist, I would be preparing for the next Canadian election with a plan to flip Edmonton Centre, Riverbend, Mill Woods and Manning. Yes, six Edmonton ridings. I fully think it's a possible goal.