With
only two days before polls close and ballots are counted, I thought I would
reflect upon the situation faced by Alberta’s political parties upon the election’s
calling, and how they’ve played their hand. Generally, I would say that no
party has campaigned well – probably most have campaigned poorly. However, the
relative poverty of their achievements is affecting them all differently, and
that well be the determinant of how seats fall on Tuesday night.
The United Conservative
Party
The clear
favourites going into the election, the UCP was polling in the mid-50s at the
start of the campaign. Such a lead guaranteed a strong majority government. The
size of their opposition would be determined mostly by the degree to which
support would coalesce around the governing NDP throughout the campaign. With
some fortune and competent campaigning, the UCP were poised to make big gains,
and they had the capital and organization to do it.
Prospects
If the
UCP enjoyed a strong campaign, or at least one stronger than their opponents,
they could probably look forward to the following:
- Growing support for the UCP from the 53% base (an amalgamation of the combined PC and WRP votes from 2015);
- Winning around 70 seats in the legislature;
- Sweeping the “Rest of Alberta” and possibly Calgary;
- Winning seats within Edmonton; and
- Seeing the elimination of the Freedom Conservative Party, Alberta Liberal Party, and Alberta Party from the Legislative Assembly.
This last point was probably the
most important for a future UCP government. Instead of a diverse opposition
attacking the government from both the left, right, and centre, opposition
would be consolidated solely from the left, and therefore easier for them to
debate and dismiss. Further, the elimination of the Alberta Party and Freedom
Conservatives would eliminate a possible home base for non-NDP opposition to
the party and disgruntled members. Altogether, this would simplify their position
as government and as the opponent of the NDP.
The Campaign
Though polling
in Alberta is notoriously error-prone, almost all polls have recorded a trend of
declining support for the UCP. If we
take an average of 55% support going into the campaign, we note a decline of
anywhere from 5-10 points province-wide, depending on the poll to which you
refer. Polls which break the data down to Alberta’s three regions tend to
demonstrate the following: big losses in support in Edmonton; narrowing support
in Calgary; while support remains unchanged in the rest of the province.
The
reasons for this are myriad. The campaign is really the first opportunity many Albertans
– including the media here – have had to scrutinize the UCP. Unfortunately for
the UCP, they have not held up well under that scrutiny. Dozens of candidates
have been exposed as bigoted or subscribing to conspiracy theories – and only
two resigned. Their leader, Jason Kenney, has handled these scandals poorly
when pressed on the issue. Further, Kenney himself is under an increasingly
visible cloud of criminal activity stemming from his election as UCP leader.
The UCP
will almost undoubtedly win the election to come. The question going forward will
be how much of the UCP survives to the next election.
Likely Results
- UCP will win 57-60 seats in the election;
- They will win the vast majority of the seats in the “Rest of Alberta;”
- They will win most of the seats in Calgary – maybe ¾ with some luck (17-18); and
- They might win a seat in Edmonton.
- However, they will likely:
- Get a smaller share of the vote compared to 2015 (sub-53%); and
- Continue to face the Alberta Party in the Legislature.
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