It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Albertans had made up their mind, and delivered unto Jason Kenney a strong mandate to govern. Meanwhile, the main opposition parties, the NDP and the Alberta Party both saw their support, in terms of actual votes, increase; in the case of the latter, significantly. "300%!" Their website cheered. But alas, they all lost seats. In the case of the Alberta Party, all...
So where do they go from here? How can they go anywhere from here?
This is without question the worst possible outcome for the Alberta Party. If they could trade half the votes they received provincially for Greg Clark to get back in the legislature, they almost certainly would. Clark was the best asset the party had. He was a tireless advocate, crossing the province regularly to promote the party's (his) views. Why would anyone book him as a former MLA? Why would he even bother trying? Judging by his twitter account, he has stopped trying, at least for now.
Mandel, the elder responsible for the party's misfortune, has yet to resign. I imagine he's somewhere in Edmonton now, holding his breath for the awaited news that David Khan has finally resigned as liberal leader, thereby allowing him to start his retirement anew, safe in the thought he wasn't the first to go. Perhaps it hasn't dawned on him yet that there's an election on...
Update
Clearly, you may have been noticing by now that I've been finishing a number of incomplete essays. Being a teacher is incredibly taxing on time, and beyond that, I've brutal attention problems that usually prevent me from finishing anything. That being said, I've at least been able to leave my past columns unadulterated, while having room to comment on them after. So I will here.
Over the past several months, I have simply been under a growing impression that the Alberta Party's campaign may have been hijacked into nothing more than a spoiler effort. Their campaign during the election was more tone-deaf and toothless than the NDP's, and given that Clark and Mandel are both now safely ensconced in UCP sinecures, it's not hard to wonder if their hearts were really in it. Moreover, UCP behaviour in the year they have been in office has been astonishingly corrupt, partisan and patronizing, and I can scarce believe that they would reward anybody who hadn't done them a favour.
What is left of the Alberta Party seems to have imploded. Its fundraising efforts are worse than the Liberal Party's (though in fairness, the Alberta Liberals are a timeless, perpetual-motion machine that will go on as long as its organizers draw breath). Its once significant social media presence has evaporated, both at a central and grassroots level. Its once hyperactive twitter account is averaging less than a post a day, not counting retweets - mostly of form letter announcements concerning their CAs. Nobody is talking about the Alberta Party anymore, except nerds, and as a joke, and rarely at that.
Is it really over for them? They do have an interim leader. They are hosting an AGM in Calgary in early April. They don't seem to have lost any Constituency Associations. Maybe there's still life in that party. There's certainly a place in Alberta for them. They did well during the last election, and had some great candidates who exceeded the low expectations set by their horrible leader. Given the pace at which UCP becomes mired in scandal and disaster, there's undoubtedly room for a less conservative conservative party to become secure and vital. If not, I'm sure Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are both looking forward to an "us vs. them" 2023 election.
A discussion of politics, science, emerging technology, and international affairs all centred on Alberta.
Wednesday, 26 February 2020
Albertans are upset
Good afternoon everyone.
Monday was the day of the Federal elections in Canada. Nationally, Canadians elected 338 people to fill our House of Commons in Ottawa. Of this 338, Alberta sends 34 representatives to the house - just over 10% of the total, while Ontario and Quebec - the biggest provinces, send 121 and 78. Generally, Canada gives seats based upon the population of each area at an agreed to time, and will again in the future.1
Justin Trudeau was expected to lose his majority - perhaps even his whole government, in light of a parade of personal and political scandals; a rebirth of the Bloc Quebecois; a booming Green Party; and seemingly, a Blue Wave of conservatism that had wiped away every provincial Liberal and NDP government between BC and Newfoundland. But, in spite of the epic turnout and single-mindedness of Albertans, this didn't quite happen.
And it is important to discuss and contextualize this, as the election has served to galvanize the rage machine within the province.
Firstly, no provincial population supported any party as much as Albertans supported the Conservative Party this election. 69% of Alberta voters voted for the Conservative Party (and as an aside, a greater proportion of Albertans voted for Bernier's Peoples Party than anywhere else in the country). The next highest support for any party, anywhere, was in Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives racked up 64% support. Indeed, the Conservatives take the top 3 results nationally - in Manitoba, they also won 45% of the vote. The Liberals didn't even get that in Newfoundland.
As another comparison, the Conservatives received a greater amount of support during the Federal Election than the UCP received in the provincial election, receiving almost 400,000 more votes than their provincial counterparts. One can only assume many provincial NDP supporters voted Conservative this election, as the number of votes gained by the Federal Liberals, NDP and Greens altogether were about half of what Rachel Notley's NDP received in the spring.
As a last positive factor to consider, we must look at voter turnout. Alberta lead the entire country with turnout greater than 70%. Simply, this is amazing - it is the first time in my lifetime, I believe, that this has ever been the case, and furthermore, many of us can recall the embarrassingly low voter turnouts of bygone days, when we weren't just the worst - but the worst by a great margin. While it's great to see so many people engaged, we can begin to note many of the caveats that accompany the Conservative claim that they won the popular vote. An unprecedented alignment of stars made that as possible as it is irrelevant.
First, we should examine past voter tendencies within the province of Alberta. With regards to Federal Elections, having 70% support for the Conservatives, or the Alliance, or Reform, or the PCs, or some combination of the above happens pretty much every single time. The 2015 election, which saw the Liberals win four seats in Alberta (and the first in Calgary since 1968!) saw the Conservatives do their worst in a half century - with 60% of the vote. Even the "earth-shattering" 1968 election saw the PCs receive over half of the vote in Alberta. Simply, Albertans all voting the same way is nothing new.
Given that that's the case, why hasn't the Federal Election results of the past echoed this massive support? First, Alberta's demographic weight has only been growing over time. At various times Alberta was 5th or 6th place in population - after Saskatchewan, even. Now, we are 4th - and catching up to number 3 - BC - at least until recent events. Second, voter turnout in Alberta has historically been the worst in Canada. People just didn't vote, so it didn't count. Alberta had the voter weight of a much smaller province with turnouts in the 40% range. In 2019, we were almost the same size as BC, and four times larger than Manitoba.
Finally, there is the reality that the rest of the country didn't support any party like Alberta and Saskatchewan did - and certainly not the Conservatives. The Liberals won the popular vote in every province east of Manitoba, and did so with less support than the Conservatives in Manitoba, even. While this looks bad for the Liberals, do keep in mind that this means the Conservatives did even worse in six provinces! In fact, they came in third in Quebec and got less than 30% of the vote in Newfoundland, PEI and Nova Scotia - just enough to keep them ahead of the NDP and Greens.
Were you to look at the national results as is, the Liberals did come 2nd place in the popular vote. However, they won the most seats, and the vote in the most provinces (6/10), and most importantly, won in the biggest provinces, Quebec and Ontario. Further, if you decide to be a jerk like me, you can remove Alberta from the equation - like our separatists seem to want. In which case, the Liberals easily win the popular vote by a big plurality, 6/9 provinces, and a majority in the House of Commons. Hell, if you remove Saskatchewan instead - guess what - the Liberals win the popular vote. That's right - Saskatchewan's vote was so monolithic it alone can account for the Conservative popular vote win. This is to say, the Liberals, wounded as they were, are much healthier than it appears.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, many not be.
1. The last expansion in the House of Commons occurred prior to the 2015 federal election, on the basis of the results of the 2011 national census. One should think that another such expansion will occur following the 2021 census, with similar results - more HoC seats for BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. Also, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Manitoba may receive additional seats then, or after the following census.
Monday was the day of the Federal elections in Canada. Nationally, Canadians elected 338 people to fill our House of Commons in Ottawa. Of this 338, Alberta sends 34 representatives to the house - just over 10% of the total, while Ontario and Quebec - the biggest provinces, send 121 and 78. Generally, Canada gives seats based upon the population of each area at an agreed to time, and will again in the future.1
Justin Trudeau was expected to lose his majority - perhaps even his whole government, in light of a parade of personal and political scandals; a rebirth of the Bloc Quebecois; a booming Green Party; and seemingly, a Blue Wave of conservatism that had wiped away every provincial Liberal and NDP government between BC and Newfoundland. But, in spite of the epic turnout and single-mindedness of Albertans, this didn't quite happen.
And it is important to discuss and contextualize this, as the election has served to galvanize the rage machine within the province.
Firstly, no provincial population supported any party as much as Albertans supported the Conservative Party this election. 69% of Alberta voters voted for the Conservative Party (and as an aside, a greater proportion of Albertans voted for Bernier's Peoples Party than anywhere else in the country). The next highest support for any party, anywhere, was in Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives racked up 64% support. Indeed, the Conservatives take the top 3 results nationally - in Manitoba, they also won 45% of the vote. The Liberals didn't even get that in Newfoundland.
As another comparison, the Conservatives received a greater amount of support during the Federal Election than the UCP received in the provincial election, receiving almost 400,000 more votes than their provincial counterparts. One can only assume many provincial NDP supporters voted Conservative this election, as the number of votes gained by the Federal Liberals, NDP and Greens altogether were about half of what Rachel Notley's NDP received in the spring.
As a last positive factor to consider, we must look at voter turnout. Alberta lead the entire country with turnout greater than 70%. Simply, this is amazing - it is the first time in my lifetime, I believe, that this has ever been the case, and furthermore, many of us can recall the embarrassingly low voter turnouts of bygone days, when we weren't just the worst - but the worst by a great margin. While it's great to see so many people engaged, we can begin to note many of the caveats that accompany the Conservative claim that they won the popular vote. An unprecedented alignment of stars made that as possible as it is irrelevant.
First, we should examine past voter tendencies within the province of Alberta. With regards to Federal Elections, having 70% support for the Conservatives, or the Alliance, or Reform, or the PCs, or some combination of the above happens pretty much every single time. The 2015 election, which saw the Liberals win four seats in Alberta (and the first in Calgary since 1968!) saw the Conservatives do their worst in a half century - with 60% of the vote. Even the "earth-shattering" 1968 election saw the PCs receive over half of the vote in Alberta. Simply, Albertans all voting the same way is nothing new.
Given that that's the case, why hasn't the Federal Election results of the past echoed this massive support? First, Alberta's demographic weight has only been growing over time. At various times Alberta was 5th or 6th place in population - after Saskatchewan, even. Now, we are 4th - and catching up to number 3 - BC - at least until recent events. Second, voter turnout in Alberta has historically been the worst in Canada. People just didn't vote, so it didn't count. Alberta had the voter weight of a much smaller province with turnouts in the 40% range. In 2019, we were almost the same size as BC, and four times larger than Manitoba.
Finally, there is the reality that the rest of the country didn't support any party like Alberta and Saskatchewan did - and certainly not the Conservatives. The Liberals won the popular vote in every province east of Manitoba, and did so with less support than the Conservatives in Manitoba, even. While this looks bad for the Liberals, do keep in mind that this means the Conservatives did even worse in six provinces! In fact, they came in third in Quebec and got less than 30% of the vote in Newfoundland, PEI and Nova Scotia - just enough to keep them ahead of the NDP and Greens.
Were you to look at the national results as is, the Liberals did come 2nd place in the popular vote. However, they won the most seats, and the vote in the most provinces (6/10), and most importantly, won in the biggest provinces, Quebec and Ontario. Further, if you decide to be a jerk like me, you can remove Alberta from the equation - like our separatists seem to want. In which case, the Liberals easily win the popular vote by a big plurality, 6/9 provinces, and a majority in the House of Commons. Hell, if you remove Saskatchewan instead - guess what - the Liberals win the popular vote. That's right - Saskatchewan's vote was so monolithic it alone can account for the Conservative popular vote win. This is to say, the Liberals, wounded as they were, are much healthier than it appears.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, many not be.
1. The last expansion in the House of Commons occurred prior to the 2015 federal election, on the basis of the results of the 2011 national census. One should think that another such expansion will occur following the 2021 census, with similar results - more HoC seats for BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. Also, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Manitoba may receive additional seats then, or after the following census.
Five Hopes for the New Federal Government
Given the calamitous state of our provincial politics in Alberta, it appears that our Federal government - those unsung heroes of yore - must once again assert itself within our borders to the greater good of all.
In the recent Federal election, a massive groundswell of support for the Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan proved utterly incapable of unseating Trudeau and the Liberals. It did, however, almost complete blue-wash those two provinces, but for the NDP hold in Edmonton. Now, if the recent actions of the Conservative governments in Ontario and Alberta are any indication, we should thank our lucky stars the rest of the country saw sense. Why? Because just like when all of Canada got healthcare, we find ourselves again in the situation of a Liberal Minority government. Albertans may not have voted in any way for it, but we may benefit greatly from it.
Today I would like to look at some proposals that would definitely benefit the province of Alberta, stolen liberally from the various parties in the House, that I think might disproportionately help us.
1. Tax-free maternity leave
This proposal from the Conservative Party of Canada would help Albertans (and Saskatchewanians) more than the residents of other provinces simply as we have the highest birth rate in Canada. Also, as pre-leave incomes are also the highest in the country, one can assume here that would stand to save a fair amount of money. Support for this proposal would probably come swiftly from Quebec, whose own birthrate is increasing and nearing ours, and who also lacks such a policy.
2. A National Childcare Program
This NDP idea would expand the recently terminated Alberta provincial program, lowering cost and increasing access to everyone needing childcare (eventually). Again, as Alberta has the highest birthrate in the country, and the highest concentration of young people, we would benefit from much of the national budget. Not to mention, a program such as this would unleash much locked down economic potential within the province. The fact that a child's care costs as much as a mortgage - or more (outside Quebec), should make this concern greater than it already is. However, opposition from the Conservatives (as state childcare is well outside their value system) and the Bloc Quebecois (as Quebec already has such a program) may sink it. Luckily, combined, they may not have the power to decide whether this goes forward or not.
3. Free Post-Secondary Education
This Green Party proposal would help out Albertans greatly. We have a large cohort of university aged Canadians, and Albertans pay - or will soon pay - the highest tuition rates and fees in the country. Again, potential opposition may come strongest from the Conservatives, who believe in "user-pay" and the Bloc, since Quebec's tuition rates are the lowest in Canada.
4. A Wealth Tax
This NDP proposal would, in spite of the high incomes in Alberta, in all likelihood affect the "old money" provinces of Ontario and Quebec much more than Alberta. It may even be a significant revenue source when taking into account the fortunes of the millionaire homeowners of Vancouver. Though wealth taxes are criticized pretty fairly for their effectiveness, it is undoubtedly necessary given the income inequality problem within Canada (and Earth). Further, this would serve to shift the tax mix in Canada away from its massive reliance on income taxes, which is the whole reason "Alberta pays too much into equalization!"
5. Changes to investment rules and taxation
During the election, the Green Party proposed Canada generate the revenue for the "Green Shift" from a mixture of new tax sources. Tobin Taxes (a tax on every investment transaction) have been proposed for ages, and are theoretically sound - raising significant revenue while diminishing the negative attributes of speculation. Changing the rules to capital gains taxes would also serve to help Canada fix it's income inequality problem and deficits - and further, changing the tax code to go after wealthy investors would also shift the Federal tax mix away from its Alberta-centric income-tax system.
So, as can be seen, Alberta could benefit from a number of new government programmes without seeing its income tax bill skyrocketing. It is not necessary that Alberta pay the bills for the rest of Canada's programs - as false a premise as that was. Instead, we can shift government programs and taxes to the benefit of Albertans if we look at the demographics our Federal policies don't assist or address. New or expanded federal government programs aimed at helping young people and famiilies help Alberta more than most. We need to acknowledge that and work pragmatically to improve our province, and the country.
In the recent Federal election, a massive groundswell of support for the Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan proved utterly incapable of unseating Trudeau and the Liberals. It did, however, almost complete blue-wash those two provinces, but for the NDP hold in Edmonton. Now, if the recent actions of the Conservative governments in Ontario and Alberta are any indication, we should thank our lucky stars the rest of the country saw sense. Why? Because just like when all of Canada got healthcare, we find ourselves again in the situation of a Liberal Minority government. Albertans may not have voted in any way for it, but we may benefit greatly from it.
Today I would like to look at some proposals that would definitely benefit the province of Alberta, stolen liberally from the various parties in the House, that I think might disproportionately help us.
1. Tax-free maternity leave
This proposal from the Conservative Party of Canada would help Albertans (and Saskatchewanians) more than the residents of other provinces simply as we have the highest birth rate in Canada. Also, as pre-leave incomes are also the highest in the country, one can assume here that would stand to save a fair amount of money. Support for this proposal would probably come swiftly from Quebec, whose own birthrate is increasing and nearing ours, and who also lacks such a policy.
2. A National Childcare Program
This NDP idea would expand the recently terminated Alberta provincial program, lowering cost and increasing access to everyone needing childcare (eventually). Again, as Alberta has the highest birthrate in the country, and the highest concentration of young people, we would benefit from much of the national budget. Not to mention, a program such as this would unleash much locked down economic potential within the province. The fact that a child's care costs as much as a mortgage - or more (outside Quebec), should make this concern greater than it already is. However, opposition from the Conservatives (as state childcare is well outside their value system) and the Bloc Quebecois (as Quebec already has such a program) may sink it. Luckily, combined, they may not have the power to decide whether this goes forward or not.
3. Free Post-Secondary Education
This Green Party proposal would help out Albertans greatly. We have a large cohort of university aged Canadians, and Albertans pay - or will soon pay - the highest tuition rates and fees in the country. Again, potential opposition may come strongest from the Conservatives, who believe in "user-pay" and the Bloc, since Quebec's tuition rates are the lowest in Canada.
4. A Wealth Tax
This NDP proposal would, in spite of the high incomes in Alberta, in all likelihood affect the "old money" provinces of Ontario and Quebec much more than Alberta. It may even be a significant revenue source when taking into account the fortunes of the millionaire homeowners of Vancouver. Though wealth taxes are criticized pretty fairly for their effectiveness, it is undoubtedly necessary given the income inequality problem within Canada (and Earth). Further, this would serve to shift the tax mix in Canada away from its massive reliance on income taxes, which is the whole reason "Alberta pays too much into equalization!"
5. Changes to investment rules and taxation
During the election, the Green Party proposed Canada generate the revenue for the "Green Shift" from a mixture of new tax sources. Tobin Taxes (a tax on every investment transaction) have been proposed for ages, and are theoretically sound - raising significant revenue while diminishing the negative attributes of speculation. Changing the rules to capital gains taxes would also serve to help Canada fix it's income inequality problem and deficits - and further, changing the tax code to go after wealthy investors would also shift the Federal tax mix away from its Alberta-centric income-tax system.
So, as can be seen, Alberta could benefit from a number of new government programmes without seeing its income tax bill skyrocketing. It is not necessary that Alberta pay the bills for the rest of Canada's programs - as false a premise as that was. Instead, we can shift government programs and taxes to the benefit of Albertans if we look at the demographics our Federal policies don't assist or address. New or expanded federal government programs aimed at helping young people and famiilies help Alberta more than most. We need to acknowledge that and work pragmatically to improve our province, and the country.
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