Obsessing over BC Riding Sizes

Since I discovered the controversy around the last BC Electoral Boundary Commission, I have been obsessing about the consequences for that province when the next Commission convenes in a few years. Certainly, the proverbial S will hit the F. I thought I should really dive deep and quantify the issue, based on Elections BC's public data (from 2011).

The last Commission was forced to leave three regions encompassing seventeen ridings alone when it last issued its report. It was working with census data that gave BC a population of 4.4 million, while its report allowed for the creation of two new ridings to account for growing populations around Vancouver. Dividing the population of 4.4M by 87, one should see an average population per riding of 50,574. According to my understanding of the Canadian Supreme Court's 1991 decision about electoral representation, in special circumstances, a variation of 25% from the average is permissible. This would create a "floor" of 37,931. However, no province declared more ridings "special" than BC did prior to its last redistricting, the aforementioned 17.

Below, I will present the three protected regions, their seventeen seats, populations, and winners in the last BC provincial election. NDP wins will be in italics and bolded, to stand out. Ridings with a population below the 25% threshold set by the Canadian Supreme Court will be marked with an asterisk.

North Region
1. Nechako Lakes*
Population: 27,055
Winner (2017): Liberals (54%)
2. North Coast*
Population: 22,320
Winner (2017): NDP (57%)
3. Peace River North
Population: 39,330
Winner (2017): Liberals (66%)
4. Peace River South*
Population: 26,330
Winner (2017): Liberals (76%)
5. Prince George-Mackenzie
Population: 45,300
Winner (2017): Liberals (57%)
6. Prince George-Valemount
Population: 46,575
Winner (2017): Liberals (58%)
7. Skeena*
Population: 29,570
Winner (2017): Liberals (52%)
8. Stikine*
Population: 20,240
Winner (2017): NDP (52%)

Total Ridings: 8
Total Riding Population: 256,720
Average Riding Population: 32,090
Ridings Below 25% threshold: 5
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 8/8
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 6.76

Thompson-Cariboo
1. Cariboo-Chilcotin*
Population: 33,140
Winner (2017): Liberals (59%)
2. Cariboo-North*
Population: 29,255
Winner (2017): Liberals (51%)
3. Fraser-Nicola*
Population: 33,630
Winner (2017): Liberals (42%)
4. Kamloops-North Thompson
Population: 52,545
Winner (2017): Liberals (48%)
5. Kamloops-South Thompson
Population: 54,625
Winner (2017): Liberals (56%)

Total Ridings: 5
Total Riding Population: 203,195
Average Riding Population: 40,639
Ridings below 25% threshold: 3
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 3/5
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 5.35

Kootenays
1. Columbia River-Revelstoke
Population: 31,565
Winner (2017): Liberals (45%)
2. Kootenay East
Population: 39,545
Winner (2017): Liberals (57%)
3. Kootenay West
Population: 41,100
Winner (2017): NDP (60%)
4. Nelson-Creston
Population: 36,600
Winner (2017): NDP (42%)

Total Ridings: 4
Total Riding Population: 148,810
Average Riding Population: 37,202
Ridings below 25% threshold: 2
Ridings Below Provincial Average size: 4/4
Number of Ridings Allowed under Supreme Court (1991): 3.92

With the exception of the two Kamloops ridings, all of the protected ridings fall below the provincial average size. Further, ten of them fall below the 25% threshold. Six of these are even close to or exceed a 50% variation from the average. A variation such as this can be justifiable on the basis of geography - but just this number alone exceeds the number of protected ridings in all other provinces, combined.

Were the BC Electoral Boundaries Commission allowed to make changes based around average riding size, or even maintaining the 25% deviation, these protected regions would lose seats. The North Region could be reduced to as many as seven, or as low as five seats. The geographically smaller region of Thompson-Cariboo could be reduced to four, and the Kootenays to three. Altogether, it would be a reduction in seats of anywhere from one to five.

As the population and representation balance in BC skews ever more towards Vancouver, Victoria and the Okanagan, it seems only the infusion of a great number of seats in those regions could stop the more dramatic reduction of these protected areas.