Wither the Alberta Party

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Albertans had made up their mind, and delivered unto Jason Kenney a strong mandate to govern. Meanwhile, the main opposition parties, the NDP and the Alberta Party both saw their support, in terms of actual votes, increase; in the case of the latter, significantly. "300%!" Their website cheered. But alas, they all lost seats. In the case of the Alberta Party, all...

So where do they go from here? How can they go anywhere from here?

This is without question the worst possible outcome for the Alberta Party. If they could trade half the votes they received provincially for Greg Clark to get back in the legislature, they almost certainly would. Clark was the best asset the party had. He was a tireless advocate, crossing the province regularly to promote the party's (his) views. Why would anyone book him as a former MLA? Why would he even bother trying? Judging by his twitter account, he has stopped trying, at least for now.

Mandel, the elder responsible for the party's misfortune, has yet to resign. I imagine he's somewhere in Edmonton now, holding his breath for the awaited news that David Khan has finally resigned as liberal leader, thereby allowing him to start his retirement anew, safe in the thought he wasn't the first to go. Perhaps it hasn't dawned on him yet that there's an election on...


Update

Clearly, you may have been noticing by now that I've been finishing a number of incomplete essays. Being a teacher is incredibly taxing on time, and beyond that, I've brutal attention problems that usually prevent me from finishing anything. That being said, I've at least been able to leave my past columns unadulterated, while having room to comment on them after. So I will here.

Over the past several months, I have simply been under a growing impression that the Alberta Party's campaign may have been hijacked into nothing more than a spoiler effort. Their campaign during the election was more tone-deaf and toothless than the NDP's, and given that Clark and Mandel are both now safely ensconced in UCP sinecures, it's not hard to wonder if their hearts were really in it. Moreover, UCP behaviour in the year they have been in office has been astonishingly corrupt, partisan and patronizing, and I can scarce believe that they would reward anybody who hadn't done them a favour.

What is left of the Alberta Party seems to have imploded. Its fundraising efforts are worse than the Liberal Party's (though in fairness, the Alberta Liberals are a timeless, perpetual-motion machine that will go on as long as its organizers draw breath). Its once significant social media presence has evaporated, both at a central and grassroots level. Its once hyperactive twitter account is averaging less than a post a day, not counting retweets - mostly of form letter announcements concerning their CAs. Nobody is talking about the Alberta Party anymore, except nerds, and as a joke, and rarely at that.

Is it really over for them? They do have an interim leader. They are hosting an AGM in Calgary in early April. They don't seem to have lost any Constituency Associations. Maybe there's still life in that party. There's certainly a place in Alberta for them. They did well during the last election, and had some great candidates who exceeded the low expectations set by their horrible leader. Given the pace at which UCP becomes mired in scandal and disaster, there's undoubtedly room for a less conservative conservative party to become secure and vital. If not, I'm sure Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are both looking forward to an "us vs. them" 2023 election.

Albertans are upset

Good afternoon everyone.

Monday was the day of the Federal elections in Canada. Nationally, Canadians elected 338 people to fill our House of Commons in Ottawa. Of this 338, Alberta sends 34 representatives to the house - just over 10% of the total, while Ontario and Quebec - the biggest provinces, send 121 and 78. Generally, Canada gives seats based upon the population of each area at an agreed to time, and will again in the future.1

Justin Trudeau was expected to lose his majority - perhaps even his whole government, in light of a parade of personal and political scandals; a rebirth of the Bloc Quebecois; a booming Green Party; and seemingly, a Blue Wave of conservatism that had wiped away every provincial Liberal and NDP government between BC and Newfoundland. But, in spite of the epic turnout and single-mindedness of Albertans, this didn't quite happen.

And it is important to discuss and contextualize this, as the election has served to galvanize the rage machine within the province.

Firstly, no provincial population supported any party as much as Albertans supported the Conservative Party this election. 69% of Alberta voters voted for the Conservative Party (and as an aside, a greater proportion of Albertans voted for Bernier's Peoples Party than anywhere else in the country). The next highest support for any party, anywhere, was in Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives racked up 64% support. Indeed, the Conservatives take the top 3 results nationally - in Manitoba, they also won 45% of the vote. The Liberals didn't even get that in Newfoundland.

As another comparison, the Conservatives received a greater amount of support during the Federal Election than the UCP received in the provincial election, receiving almost 400,000 more votes than their provincial counterparts. One can only assume many provincial NDP supporters voted Conservative this election, as the number of votes gained by the Federal Liberals, NDP and Greens altogether were about half of what Rachel Notley's NDP received in the spring.

As a last positive factor to consider, we must look at voter turnout. Alberta lead the entire country with turnout greater than 70%. Simply, this is amazing - it is the first time in my lifetime, I believe, that this has ever been the case, and furthermore, many of us can recall the embarrassingly low voter turnouts of bygone days, when we weren't just the worst - but the worst by a great margin. While it's great to see so many people engaged, we can begin to note many of the caveats that accompany the Conservative claim that they won the popular vote. An unprecedented alignment of stars made that as possible as it is irrelevant.


First, we should examine past voter tendencies within the province of Alberta. With regards to Federal Elections, having 70% support for the Conservatives, or the Alliance, or Reform, or the PCs, or some combination of the above happens pretty much every single time. The 2015 election, which saw the Liberals win four seats in Alberta (and the first in Calgary since 1968!) saw the Conservatives do their worst in a half century - with 60% of the vote. Even the "earth-shattering" 1968 election saw the PCs receive over half of the vote in Alberta. Simply, Albertans all voting the same way is nothing new.

Given that that's the case, why hasn't the Federal Election results of the past echoed this massive support? First, Alberta's demographic weight has only been growing over time. At various times Alberta was 5th or 6th place in population - after Saskatchewan, even. Now, we are 4th - and catching up to number 3 - BC - at least until recent events. Second, voter turnout in Alberta has historically been the worst in Canada. People just didn't vote, so it didn't count. Alberta had the voter weight of a much smaller province with turnouts in the 40% range. In 2019, we were almost the same size as BC, and four times larger than Manitoba.

Finally, there is the reality that the rest of the country didn't support any party like Alberta and Saskatchewan did - and certainly not the Conservatives. The Liberals won the popular vote in every province east of Manitoba, and did so with less support than the Conservatives in Manitoba, even. While this looks bad for the Liberals, do keep in mind that this means the Conservatives did even worse in six provinces! In fact, they came in third in Quebec and got less than 30% of the vote in Newfoundland, PEI and Nova Scotia - just enough to keep them ahead of the NDP and Greens.

Were you to look at the national results as is, the Liberals did come 2nd place in the popular vote. However, they won the most seats, and the vote in the most provinces (6/10), and most importantly, won in the biggest provinces, Quebec and Ontario. Further, if you decide to be a jerk like me, you can remove Alberta from the equation - like our separatists seem to want. In which case, the Liberals easily win the popular vote by a big plurality, 6/9 provinces, and a majority in the House of Commons. Hell, if you remove Saskatchewan instead - guess what - the Liberals win the popular vote. That's right - Saskatchewan's vote was so monolithic it alone can account for the Conservative popular vote win. This is to say, the Liberals, wounded as they were, are much healthier than it appears.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, many not be.

1. The last expansion in the House of Commons occurred prior to the 2015 federal election, on the basis of the results of the 2011 national census. One should think that another such expansion will occur following the 2021 census, with similar results - more HoC seats for BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. Also, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Manitoba may receive additional seats then, or after the following census.

Five Hopes for the New Federal Government

Given the calamitous state of our provincial politics in Alberta, it appears that our Federal government - those unsung heroes of yore - must once again assert itself within our borders to the greater good of all.

In the recent Federal election, a massive groundswell of support for the Conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan proved utterly incapable of unseating Trudeau and the Liberals. It did, however, almost complete blue-wash those two provinces, but for the NDP hold in Edmonton. Now, if the recent actions of the Conservative governments in Ontario and Alberta are any indication, we should thank our lucky stars the rest of the country saw sense. Why? Because just like when all of Canada got healthcare, we find ourselves again in the situation of a Liberal Minority government. Albertans may not have voted in any way for it, but we may benefit greatly from it.

Today I would like to look at some proposals that would definitely benefit the province of Alberta, stolen liberally from the various parties in the House, that I think might disproportionately help us.

1. Tax-free maternity leave

This proposal from the Conservative Party of Canada would help Albertans (and Saskatchewanians) more than the residents of other provinces simply as we have the highest birth rate in Canada. Also, as pre-leave incomes are also the highest in the country, one can assume here that would stand to save a fair amount of money. Support for this proposal would probably come swiftly from Quebec, whose own birthrate is increasing and nearing ours, and who also lacks such a policy.

2. A National Childcare Program

This NDP idea would expand the recently terminated Alberta provincial program, lowering cost and increasing access to everyone needing childcare (eventually). Again, as Alberta has the highest birthrate in the country, and the highest concentration of young people, we would benefit from much of the national budget. Not to mention, a program such as this would unleash much locked down economic potential within the province. The fact that a child's care costs as much as a mortgage - or more (outside Quebec), should make this concern greater than it already is. However, opposition from the Conservatives (as state childcare is well outside their value system) and the Bloc Quebecois (as Quebec already has such a program) may sink it. Luckily, combined, they may not have the power to decide whether this goes forward or not.

3. Free Post-Secondary Education
This Green Party proposal would help out Albertans greatly. We have a large cohort of university aged Canadians, and Albertans pay - or will soon pay - the highest tuition rates and fees in the country. Again, potential opposition may come strongest from the Conservatives, who believe in "user-pay" and the Bloc, since Quebec's tuition rates are the lowest in Canada.

4. A Wealth Tax
This NDP proposal would, in spite of the high incomes in Alberta, in all likelihood affect the "old money" provinces of Ontario and Quebec much more than Alberta. It may even be a significant revenue source when taking into account the fortunes of the millionaire homeowners of Vancouver. Though wealth taxes are criticized pretty fairly for their effectiveness, it is undoubtedly necessary given the income inequality problem within Canada (and Earth). Further, this would serve to shift the tax mix in Canada away from its massive reliance on income taxes, which is the whole reason "Alberta pays too much into equalization!"

5. Changes to investment rules and taxation
During the election, the Green Party proposed Canada generate the revenue for the "Green Shift" from a mixture of new tax sources. Tobin Taxes (a tax on every investment transaction) have been proposed for ages, and are theoretically sound - raising significant revenue while diminishing the negative attributes of speculation. Changing the rules to capital gains taxes would also serve to help Canada fix it's income inequality problem and deficits - and further, changing the tax code to go after wealthy investors would also shift the Federal tax mix away from its Alberta-centric income-tax system.

So, as can be seen, Alberta could benefit from a number of new government programmes without seeing its income tax bill skyrocketing. It is not necessary that Alberta pay the bills for the rest of Canada's programs - as false a premise as that was. Instead, we can shift government programs and taxes to the benefit of Albertans if we look at the demographics our Federal policies don't assist or address. New or expanded federal government programs aimed at helping young people and famiilies help Alberta more than most. We need to acknowledge that and work pragmatically to improve our province, and the country.

Alberta Election 2019: A UCP Landslide

It did not take long for the news agencies to declare that Jason Kenney's United Conservative Party had won the election held yesterday. I got an alert on my phone at 8:38, less than half an hour after the first results had come in.

I was not surprised to see the UCP form the government, and I think most people felt that was coming. However, they did much better than I anticipated. As of writing, they have won or are leading in 63 seats province-wide. They were able to expand their share of the popular vote beyond the 53% threshold hit by the PCs and WRP in the previous election. They were able to win seats all over Alberta, and often crushed the NDP in ridings some suspected to be closer. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, they crushed the opposition in general.

The Liberals won zero seats and got less than 1% of the vote. The Alberta Party won zero seats, though they got 9% of the vote. Perhaps most hilariously, the Freedom Conservative Party was utterly destroyed as a serious political entity - winning zero seats and getting fewer votes across the province than the Alberta Independence Party. Their leader, Derek Fildebrandt, was totally humiliated, repudiated, whatever you like - coming in a distant 3rd place with only 7.7% percent of the vote, and only slightly ahead of the Alberta Party, in his home riding.

Accordingly, the UCP have only to face a much reduced NDP in the legislature for the foreseeable future. It's my belief that this is the best possible outcome for them, as they will have an easier time dodging and dismissing criticism from the NDP than a coalition of other parties.

Whither the Alberta Party, and everybody else?

Further, the UCP may not need worry about the Alberta Party drawing away support in the elections to come. Though the Alberta Party was able to quadruple it's support in the popular vote, this wasn't enough to translate to seats, or even many strong showings. Greg Clark, the first person to be elected as an AP MLA, was handily defeated in Calgary-Elbow, coming in 2nd place with 32% of the vote. As far as I could tell, only party leader Stephen Mandel and former MLA Rick Fraser broke 20% support in their ridings. It is hard to foresee how the Alberta Party could build upon their support without even one MLA in the legislature. They will have no more profile, no more media coverage; no more attention at all really for at least for four more years!

So now that the election is over, the best insight we can get into the future may come from the Q2 and especially Q3 financial disclosure reports to Elections Alberta. I anticipate the UCP and NDP will maintain their support, at least relative to each other, but the real question I anticipate is what happens to the supporters of the other parties.

For reference, the Alberta Liberals raised $174,000 in 2018. The Alberta Party raised almost $600,000 in the same year. The Freedom Conservatives managed to draw almost $40,000. Curiously, no numbers were available for the Alberta Independence Party. But it's worth noting none of these numbers reflect any fundraising in 2019 - and the monetary support that went the Liberals and Alberta Party was pretty considerable, nonetheless. Where does this money go? Into the big parties, or into somebody else? Or does it stay in their pockets?

There are certainly more things to consider in the days to come. Thanks for reading!

Alberta Election 2019, Part 2: the Centre-Left

The New Democratic Party of Alberta

                Nobody can say that the NDP were going to have an easy path to re-election. Only the most diehard partisans even argued that the chances for their re-election were good. Polling before the writ placed the NDP as the choice of less than a third of Albertans – still a historically strong showing for the provincial NDP, to be sure, but a rather toothless amount of support against the massive public support for the UCP. One-third of support doesn’t translate to a third of the seats; the NDP looked at the possibility of being a rather small big fish in a barely bigger opposition pond.

                Further, the Alberta Party and the Liberals would not just go away, potentially drawing support away from the NDP in many key ridings.

                However, the NDP embarked on the campaign outwardly aiming to win. A strong campaign, with some good fortune in terms of the strength and distribution of support, could still mean an either strong opposition, or even a narrowly won victory. Anaemic campaigns by their opponents might even translate to gains to make up for losses elsewhere.

Prospects

                The NDP would need a very strong campaign, mixed with some good fortune, to retain government. At the beginning of the campaign, however, the NDP were looking at the following:

• -          Winning most of the seats within the city of Edmonton;
• -          Retaining a handful of seats outside of Edmonton;
• -          Retaining much of their voter support from the previous election; and
• -          Forming the opposition to the government.

The Campaign

                The NDP campaign has not had the strong campaign it needed to completely close the lead the UCP had over them at the beginning. However, they have been aided by relatively poor campaigns from the UCP an even the Alberta Party. Accordingly, they have accrued support throughout the campaign. It is uncertain how much this added support will translate into seats. It is unlikely that it is enough to form the government, but now the NDP looks like it could form the strongest opposition to a government in Alberta since the Liberals in 1993.

Likely Results

-          The NDP will win 25-33 seats in the election; of these

o   They will win the majority of the seats in the city of Edmonton, possibly sweeping them;

o   They will win anywhere from 5-10 of the seats in Calgary, particularly along Crowchild Trail (traditionally Liberal seats) and in North-Central and Northeast Calgary.

o   They will likely hold on to a few seats outside of the big cities, particularly Lethbridge-West.

-          In terms of placement in the election results, the NDP can expect

o   To maintain vote shares relative to their results in 2015

o   Form the opposition in the legislature.

The Alberta Liberals

                The Alberta Liberal party comes here, in third place, by virtue of having received more votes in the last election than the parties that follows. However, that vote total, counted on May 5, 2015, does nothing to represent the terrible momentum and events that belied the Alberta Liberals in the succeeding four years, not mention the previous seven, which had seen their share of the vote collapse from 25% to 4%. 

                Their one seat in the legislature placed them in a tie with the Alberta Party and Freedom Conservatives. However, their one MLA, the respected David Swann, finally decided to take his well-earned retirement, something neither Greg Clark of the Alberta Party or Derek Fildebrandt were prepared to do.

                Further, his resignation brought about an embarrassing leadership contest, between the Johnny-come-lately and eventual, narrow winner David Khan, and current Alberta Party operative Kerry Cundal, who ran on the platform of merging the Alberta Liberals with the Alberta Party. Less than two thousand votes were cast, resulting in a narrow victory for Khan and the Liberal diehards.

                Following this landmark leadership contest, the Liberals had byelection to make Don Quixote proud. With Jason Kenney returning to Alberta from Ottawa to seek a seat, long-term PC MLA Dave Rodney resigned to offer him his riding, one of the safest in the province. The Liberals, for some reason, decided to make a statement and poured a significant amount of their capital into the byelection, with Liberal leader Khan running against the favourite, Kenney, and coming in third.

                They entered the 2019 election with very little momentum, a poor fundraising situation, and almost no media profile. The Liberals were able to scrape together 50-something candidates across the province for the election (generally in the south), but they will undoubtedly be content if the leader, Khan, retains their last, Calgary-Mountainview, seat.

Prospects

                Were the Liberals to enjoy a strong campaign, they could probably hope for the following:

• -          A win in Calgary-Mountainview; and
• -          An increase in vote totals (62,153) and share (4.19%) from 2015.

The Campaign

                David Khan arguably had the best debate performance of any of the party leaders in the Leader’s Debate. However, this, and a number of high-profile policy proposals, have done nothing to increase their odds of success or survival. Polls consistently place them below their 2015 vote share of 4% - often as low as 1% of intended voters, and that’s even with David Khan competitive in Calgary-Mountainview. However, he seems to be polling in third – albeit a strong third – but third nonetheless. A loss here, and that bad, likely signals the death of the party, as unlike the 1970s (when they had no seats), they were at least the strongest progressive voice in town. With the NDP becoming the established progressive party, this is no longer the case, and the reason for their existence disappears.

Likely Results

-          Alberta Liberals will win zero seats in the election.

o   David Khan will come in third in Calgary-Mountainview. This will be their highest placement province-wide.

-          Share of the vote, in proportional and absolute terms, will continue its decline.

The Alberta Party

                The election of Greg Clark in 2015 was a watershed moment. A new political party took on a government cabinet minister, in a safe seat, and handily defeated them. Then, that new MLA proved to be one of the hardest working people in the Legislature. His feats of promotion, for example, giving interviews in Calgary and Edmonton the same day, made the Alberta Party the most hyped political party in the province – even more than the UCP. MLAs were crossing the floor to join it – MacPherson from the NDP, Fraser from the PCs, and there were rumours of more to come. Then it all got thrown away.

                “Capitalizing” on their momentum, the Alberta Party decided a leadership convention was just the thing to raise party profile and fundraising further. Clark was out. Kara Levis, Rick Fraser (who referred to the event by accident as the PC leadership), and Stephen Mandel, were in. The latter won, and witnessed all the momentum the party possessed disappear. 

                In the succeeding years, Mandel has been taking a knee when he hasn’t been going through the motions. The Party profile steadily diminished to the point where the Alberta Party began the election having basically taken a weak third place from the Liberal Party in preference, but only because they had shed more supporters than the Alberta Party!

                That said, this election, the Alberta Party was running a candidate in every riding, and were getting much more coverage than the other fringe parties. They stand to grow in the coming election. They must hope it’s enough.

Prospects

                With a strong campaign and some luck, the Alberta Party could look forward to:

-          Winning two seats (Clark and Mandel);

-          Expanding share of the vote to double digits;

-          Strong third, or even second place showings throughout the province; and

-          Eventual merger with the Alberta Liberals.

The Campaign

                Unfortunately for the Alberta Party, the campaign was a continuation of the inertia of the post-leadership-convention days. Mandel was largely unable to recapture the attention that Clark once had, though the Leader’s Debate brought the party a decent amount of attention. Alienation from the UCP and NDP, anger and dissatisfaction among voters have undoubtedly raised the Alberta Party’s fortunes in the latter half of the campaign, as shown in polling. However, this growing support is far too little create growth (in seats), no less secure Greg Clark’s re-election. However, Greg Clark probably will be re-elected, and he’s the right person to harness whatever goodwill and momentum the Alberta Party has after the election.

Likely Results

-          Greg Clark will be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow;

-          Share of the vote will go up vs. 2015 (they got 2.29%, and didn’t run in every riding. This is pretty much a certainty);

-          Stephen Mandel resigns as leader.

Alberta Election 2019 - Prospects and Opportunities, Part 1: the UCP

                With only two days before polls close and ballots are counted, I thought I would reflect upon the situation faced by Alberta’s political parties upon the election’s calling, and how they’ve played their hand. Generally, I would say that no party has campaigned well – probably most have campaigned poorly. However, the relative poverty of their achievements is affecting them all differently, and that well be the determinant of how seats fall on Tuesday night.

The United Conservative Party

                The clear favourites going into the election, the UCP was polling in the mid-50s at the start of the campaign. Such a lead guaranteed a strong majority government. The size of their opposition would be determined mostly by the degree to which support would coalesce around the governing NDP throughout the campaign. With some fortune and competent campaigning, the UCP were poised to make big gains, and they had the capital and organization to do it.

Prospects

                If the UCP enjoyed a strong campaign, or at least one stronger than their opponents, they could probably look forward to the following:

• Growing support for the UCP from the 53% base (an amalgamation of the combined PC and WRP votes from 2015);
• Winning around 70 seats in the legislature;
• Sweeping the “Rest of Alberta” and possibly Calgary;
• Winning seats within Edmonton; and
•  Seeing the elimination of the Freedom Conservative Party, Alberta Liberal Party, and Alberta Party from the Legislative Assembly.

This last point was probably the most important for a future UCP government. Instead of a diverse opposition attacking the government from both the left, right, and centre, opposition would be consolidated solely from the left, and therefore easier for them to debate and dismiss. Further, the elimination of the Alberta Party and Freedom Conservatives would eliminate a possible home base for non-NDP opposition to the party and disgruntled members. Altogether, this would simplify their position as government and as the opponent of the NDP. 

The Campaign

                Though polling in Alberta is notoriously error-prone, almost all polls have recorded a trend of declining support for the UCP.  If we take an average of 55% support going into the campaign, we note a decline of anywhere from 5-10 points province-wide, depending on the poll to which you refer. Polls which break the data down to Alberta’s three regions tend to demonstrate the following: big losses in support in Edmonton; narrowing support in Calgary; while support remains unchanged in the rest of the province.

                The reasons for this are myriad. The campaign is really the first opportunity many Albertans – including the media here – have had to scrutinize the UCP. Unfortunately for the UCP, they have not held up well under that scrutiny. Dozens of candidates have been exposed as bigoted or subscribing to conspiracy theories – and only two resigned. Their leader, Jason Kenney, has handled these scandals poorly when pressed on the issue. Further, Kenney himself is under an increasingly visible cloud of criminal activity stemming from his election as UCP leader.

                The UCP will almost undoubtedly win the election to come. The question going forward will be how much of the UCP survives to the next election.

Likely Results

• UCP will win 57-60 seats in the election; 
• They will win the vast majority of the seats in the “Rest of Alberta;” 
• They will win most of the seats in Calgary – maybe ¾ with some luck (17-18); and 
• They might win a seat in Edmonton. 

• However, they will likely: 
• Get a smaller share of the vote compared to 2015 (sub-53%); and 
• Continue to face the Alberta Party in the Legislature.