Albertans are upset

Good afternoon everyone.

Monday was the day of the Federal elections in Canada. Nationally, Canadians elected 338 people to fill our House of Commons in Ottawa. Of this 338, Alberta sends 34 representatives to the house - just over 10% of the total, while Ontario and Quebec - the biggest provinces, send 121 and 78. Generally, Canada gives seats based upon the population of each area at an agreed to time, and will again in the future.1

Justin Trudeau was expected to lose his majority - perhaps even his whole government, in light of a parade of personal and political scandals; a rebirth of the Bloc Quebecois; a booming Green Party; and seemingly, a Blue Wave of conservatism that had wiped away every provincial Liberal and NDP government between BC and Newfoundland. But, in spite of the epic turnout and single-mindedness of Albertans, this didn't quite happen.

And it is important to discuss and contextualize this, as the election has served to galvanize the rage machine within the province.

Firstly, no provincial population supported any party as much as Albertans supported the Conservative Party this election. 69% of Alberta voters voted for the Conservative Party (and as an aside, a greater proportion of Albertans voted for Bernier's Peoples Party than anywhere else in the country). The next highest support for any party, anywhere, was in Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives racked up 64% support. Indeed, the Conservatives take the top 3 results nationally - in Manitoba, they also won 45% of the vote. The Liberals didn't even get that in Newfoundland.

As another comparison, the Conservatives received a greater amount of support during the Federal Election than the UCP received in the provincial election, receiving almost 400,000 more votes than their provincial counterparts. One can only assume many provincial NDP supporters voted Conservative this election, as the number of votes gained by the Federal Liberals, NDP and Greens altogether were about half of what Rachel Notley's NDP received in the spring.

As a last positive factor to consider, we must look at voter turnout. Alberta lead the entire country with turnout greater than 70%. Simply, this is amazing - it is the first time in my lifetime, I believe, that this has ever been the case, and furthermore, many of us can recall the embarrassingly low voter turnouts of bygone days, when we weren't just the worst - but the worst by a great margin. While it's great to see so many people engaged, we can begin to note many of the caveats that accompany the Conservative claim that they won the popular vote. An unprecedented alignment of stars made that as possible as it is irrelevant.


First, we should examine past voter tendencies within the province of Alberta. With regards to Federal Elections, having 70% support for the Conservatives, or the Alliance, or Reform, or the PCs, or some combination of the above happens pretty much every single time. The 2015 election, which saw the Liberals win four seats in Alberta (and the first in Calgary since 1968!) saw the Conservatives do their worst in a half century - with 60% of the vote. Even the "earth-shattering" 1968 election saw the PCs receive over half of the vote in Alberta. Simply, Albertans all voting the same way is nothing new.

Given that that's the case, why hasn't the Federal Election results of the past echoed this massive support? First, Alberta's demographic weight has only been growing over time. At various times Alberta was 5th or 6th place in population - after Saskatchewan, even. Now, we are 4th - and catching up to number 3 - BC - at least until recent events. Second, voter turnout in Alberta has historically been the worst in Canada. People just didn't vote, so it didn't count. Alberta had the voter weight of a much smaller province with turnouts in the 40% range. In 2019, we were almost the same size as BC, and four times larger than Manitoba.

Finally, there is the reality that the rest of the country didn't support any party like Alberta and Saskatchewan did - and certainly not the Conservatives. The Liberals won the popular vote in every province east of Manitoba, and did so with less support than the Conservatives in Manitoba, even. While this looks bad for the Liberals, do keep in mind that this means the Conservatives did even worse in six provinces! In fact, they came in third in Quebec and got less than 30% of the vote in Newfoundland, PEI and Nova Scotia - just enough to keep them ahead of the NDP and Greens.

Were you to look at the national results as is, the Liberals did come 2nd place in the popular vote. However, they won the most seats, and the vote in the most provinces (6/10), and most importantly, won in the biggest provinces, Quebec and Ontario. Further, if you decide to be a jerk like me, you can remove Alberta from the equation - like our separatists seem to want. In which case, the Liberals easily win the popular vote by a big plurality, 6/9 provinces, and a majority in the House of Commons. Hell, if you remove Saskatchewan instead - guess what - the Liberals win the popular vote. That's right - Saskatchewan's vote was so monolithic it alone can account for the Conservative popular vote win. This is to say, the Liberals, wounded as they were, are much healthier than it appears.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, many not be.

1. The last expansion in the House of Commons occurred prior to the 2015 federal election, on the basis of the results of the 2011 national census. One should think that another such expansion will occur following the 2021 census, with similar results - more HoC seats for BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. Also, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Manitoba may receive additional seats then, or after the following census.