Alberta Election 2019: A UCP Landslide

It did not take long for the news agencies to declare that Jason Kenney's United Conservative Party had won the election held yesterday. I got an alert on my phone at 8:38, less than half an hour after the first results had come in.

I was not surprised to see the UCP form the government, and I think most people felt that was coming. However, they did much better than I anticipated. As of writing, they have won or are leading in 63 seats province-wide. They were able to expand their share of the popular vote beyond the 53% threshold hit by the PCs and WRP in the previous election. They were able to win seats all over Alberta, and often crushed the NDP in ridings some suspected to be closer. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, they crushed the opposition in general.

The Liberals won zero seats and got less than 1% of the vote. The Alberta Party won zero seats, though they got 9% of the vote. Perhaps most hilariously, the Freedom Conservative Party was utterly destroyed as a serious political entity - winning zero seats and getting fewer votes across the province than the Alberta Independence Party. Their leader, Derek Fildebrandt, was totally humiliated, repudiated, whatever you like - coming in a distant 3rd place with only 7.7% percent of the vote, and only slightly ahead of the Alberta Party, in his home riding.

Accordingly, the UCP have only to face a much reduced NDP in the legislature for the foreseeable future. It's my belief that this is the best possible outcome for them, as they will have an easier time dodging and dismissing criticism from the NDP than a coalition of other parties.

Whither the Alberta Party, and everybody else?

Further, the UCP may not need worry about the Alberta Party drawing away support in the elections to come. Though the Alberta Party was able to quadruple it's support in the popular vote, this wasn't enough to translate to seats, or even many strong showings. Greg Clark, the first person to be elected as an AP MLA, was handily defeated in Calgary-Elbow, coming in 2nd place with 32% of the vote. As far as I could tell, only party leader Stephen Mandel and former MLA Rick Fraser broke 20% support in their ridings. It is hard to foresee how the Alberta Party could build upon their support without even one MLA in the legislature. They will have no more profile, no more media coverage; no more attention at all really for at least for four more years!

So now that the election is over, the best insight we can get into the future may come from the Q2 and especially Q3 financial disclosure reports to Elections Alberta. I anticipate the UCP and NDP will maintain their support, at least relative to each other, but the real question I anticipate is what happens to the supporters of the other parties.

For reference, the Alberta Liberals raised $174,000 in 2018. The Alberta Party raised almost $600,000 in the same year. The Freedom Conservatives managed to draw almost $40,000. Curiously, no numbers were available for the Alberta Independence Party. But it's worth noting none of these numbers reflect any fundraising in 2019 - and the monetary support that went the Liberals and Alberta Party was pretty considerable, nonetheless. Where does this money go? Into the big parties, or into somebody else? Or does it stay in their pockets?

There are certainly more things to consider in the days to come. Thanks for reading!

Alberta Election 2019 - Prospects and Opportunities, Part 1: the UCP

                With only two days before polls close and ballots are counted, I thought I would reflect upon the situation faced by Alberta’s political parties upon the election’s calling, and how they’ve played their hand. Generally, I would say that no party has campaigned well – probably most have campaigned poorly. However, the relative poverty of their achievements is affecting them all differently, and that well be the determinant of how seats fall on Tuesday night.

The United Conservative Party

                The clear favourites going into the election, the UCP was polling in the mid-50s at the start of the campaign. Such a lead guaranteed a strong majority government. The size of their opposition would be determined mostly by the degree to which support would coalesce around the governing NDP throughout the campaign. With some fortune and competent campaigning, the UCP were poised to make big gains, and they had the capital and organization to do it.

Prospects

                If the UCP enjoyed a strong campaign, or at least one stronger than their opponents, they could probably look forward to the following:

• Growing support for the UCP from the 53% base (an amalgamation of the combined PC and WRP votes from 2015);
• Winning around 70 seats in the legislature;
• Sweeping the “Rest of Alberta” and possibly Calgary;
• Winning seats within Edmonton; and
•  Seeing the elimination of the Freedom Conservative Party, Alberta Liberal Party, and Alberta Party from the Legislative Assembly.

This last point was probably the most important for a future UCP government. Instead of a diverse opposition attacking the government from both the left, right, and centre, opposition would be consolidated solely from the left, and therefore easier for them to debate and dismiss. Further, the elimination of the Alberta Party and Freedom Conservatives would eliminate a possible home base for non-NDP opposition to the party and disgruntled members. Altogether, this would simplify their position as government and as the opponent of the NDP. 

The Campaign

                Though polling in Alberta is notoriously error-prone, almost all polls have recorded a trend of declining support for the UCP.  If we take an average of 55% support going into the campaign, we note a decline of anywhere from 5-10 points province-wide, depending on the poll to which you refer. Polls which break the data down to Alberta’s three regions tend to demonstrate the following: big losses in support in Edmonton; narrowing support in Calgary; while support remains unchanged in the rest of the province.

                The reasons for this are myriad. The campaign is really the first opportunity many Albertans – including the media here – have had to scrutinize the UCP. Unfortunately for the UCP, they have not held up well under that scrutiny. Dozens of candidates have been exposed as bigoted or subscribing to conspiracy theories – and only two resigned. Their leader, Jason Kenney, has handled these scandals poorly when pressed on the issue. Further, Kenney himself is under an increasingly visible cloud of criminal activity stemming from his election as UCP leader.

                The UCP will almost undoubtedly win the election to come. The question going forward will be how much of the UCP survives to the next election.

Likely Results

• UCP will win 57-60 seats in the election; 
• They will win the vast majority of the seats in the “Rest of Alberta;” 
• They will win most of the seats in Calgary – maybe ¾ with some luck (17-18); and 
• They might win a seat in Edmonton. 

• However, they will likely: 
• Get a smaller share of the vote compared to 2015 (sub-53%); and 
• Continue to face the Alberta Party in the Legislature.