The UCP's Q1 Fundraising Disaster

2020 was a calamitous year for Alberta, like most places, but particularly for the governing United Conservative Party. While public dissatisfaction with their governance rose steadily throughout the year, many people seized upon rising fundraising totals for the opposition NDP and shrinking fundraising totals for the government as evidence of a desired shift within the province. To the delight of the government's boosters, the UCP delivered a strong fourth quarter performance at the end of 2020 that not only defeated NDP fundraising in those months, but over the year entirely. Perhaps fears of an NDP resurgence were phantoms, not real... 

But this recent success only makes the recently released Q1 disclosures more disappointing for them. It is bad to be out-fundraised by your opposition - and in this case the NDP more than lapped them 2:1. It is embarrassing to be out-fundraised in terms of large donors (people donating amounts greater than $250/year) when you are a conservative party, a party of the deep-pocketed. Lastly, it is embarrassing to be out-fundraised by small donors by a scale greater than 3:1 - the NDP outraised the UCP $800,000 to $233,000. Perhaps most significantly, though, the Q1 UCP saw a drop off in donations exceeding 67% from Q4 2020, and this during tax season.

Historically, the second and third quarters of a year are dry spells for UCP fundraising (in fairness, their supporters were preparing for an election in 2018, fought one in 2019, and suffered a plague in 2020 - but three makes a pattern), so we could anticipate further financial troubles for this troubled party. Fears of an NDP resurgence are not phantasmagorical, but solid, and their support is stiffening as it deepens. Or so it would seem. 

However, one thing stood out to me as I briefly surveyed the UCP disclosures for the first time earlier today: lots of UCP MLAs popped out of the page at the top of the donor list. It made me wonder: was UCP support even hollower than it appeared? Is this a party essentially laundering its government salaries back into itself? I had to have a look, and here is what I found.

To get started, lets keep in mind this number: $591,597.71. This is the amount the party raised during Q1 2021. Of this amount, $233,450.45 came from donations below $250, while the remaining $358,147.26 came from individuals donating above $250. 

The current donation limit for an individual in Alberta is $4243, and the following UCP MLAs donated that amount: Devin Dreeshen, Tanya Fir, Nathan Horner, Jason Kenney, Tyler Shandro, and Travis Toews; their donations thus total $25,458. Meanwhile, Children's Services Minister Rececca Schulz missed the memo and only donated to the old limit of $4000, but at least her husband Cole chipped in another $3000. So far, $32,458.

Going further down the list, Matt Wolf, Twitter's Mr. Congeniality, once again put in his 200,000 cents. His equal, at least in the legislature, is the otherwise unnotable MLA Searle Turton. Rick McIvor made a contribution of $1,150; Tanya Fir's mother Josie with $1000; Dan Williams with $630; staffer, and former Daveberta cohost Ryan Hastman with $626.16; MLA Shane Getson with $600; UCP Executive Directer Dustin Van Vugt with $568; and, rounding out the donors north of $500, pipeline enthusiast and MLA Michaela Glasgo with a donation of $525. This brings us to a running total of $41,557.16, or 7% of the total.

In between $500 and $250, the list starts off with some celebrity, with Leela Aheer finally making an appearance with a donation of $450. Tying her in enthusiasm are Rick McIvor's wife, Christine, and MLA Joseph Schow. Roger Reid, MLA for the riding which includes the ever consequential Eastern Slopes, put in his $400. MLA Matthew Jones comes next with $390; then fellow Calgary MLA Josephine Pon with $325; staffer, and high school classmate of mine Evan Menzies with $301, who just beats out fellow staffer Brock Harrison by the narrowest, Price-Is-Right margins ($300). 

Now of course, this is just the first quarter of what will surely be a long and bitter year, but I couldn't help notice the absence of so many UCP MLAs from the list above. Surely a few are stewing around below that magic $250 threshold that makes anonymity disappear, but it was a surprise to me, and likely the UCP braintrust that the list above has only 17 out of the UCP's 62 remaining MLAs. Surprising too was the facelessness of many of their MLAs; I had to run each name through Wikipedia and the donor list just to be sure there wasn't anyone I missed. I was chagrined as a political junkie to have not heard of most of them. 

In the end, you probably came here to find out how incestuous the UCP's fundraising situation has become. The answer, at least as far as I, with my limited means and intellect could determine is $44,623.16, which represents only 7.5% of their overall quarterly fundraising. However, it makes up 12.5% of the big donor money received in Q1 2021. 

Now this share is unlikely to grow throughout the year - there are simply more Albertans than UCP MLA or staffers, and a turn around in the province's fortunes could turn around people's views of the UCP. Time will tell.

Fun facts

In the whole disclosure, there are only 74 big donors from Alberta's second city, Edmonton - a few of whom were donating to Constituency associations in Calgary. Weird. (Edmonton appears in a search 83 times; 207 for Calgary). Representing the province's lesser cities are ten donors each from Red Deer and Sherwood Park; five each from Lethbridge, Lloydminster and Spruce Grove; four from Leduc; and 3 each from Medicine Hat, Okotoks and Cochrane. At this point I grew bored and stopped counting.

Musings on the UCP, Sept. 2020

Angus Reid did the impossible and recently provided us a survey of over 500 Albertans! It has political types across the country looking on with amazement: the NDP and the UCP are tied. 338 just updated its model: the UCP with the inclusion of these numbers still win a majority, but much reduced from 63 to 48 - a mere five seats away from defeat. Lean Tossup, which tends to be the more dramatic aggregator, however, has the NDP and UCP win 43 seats apiece, with the Alberta Party picking up one, and thereby becoming the ultimate kingmaker. However, they acknowledge that this is a glitch - as the NDP are leading in their projections in Calgary Elbow. Therefore, we have the first aggregator putting the NDP in majority territory. How quickly the mighty are falling... When elected last spring, Jason Kenney looked the man to initiate a new glorious reign of Conservatism in Alberta. Almost everyone foresaw that this new dynasty would be his springboard to a tenure as Canadian Prime Minister. Now, his party's lead is going up in smoke, as is his own reputation and standing as the real leader of conservatives in Canada. In this piece, I'd like to look at some issues currently affecting the UCP and how this might affect them down the road. 

1. COVID Curse

Jason Kenney is very likely going to be alike to Rachel Notley in a very unlucky way: their parties, when first elected to the legislature, did not or are not going to enjoy a resource boom. Ralph Klein's dynasty was cemented by a surge in the value of natural gas (and preserved, arguably, by America's War on Terror). Before him, Peter Lougheed got to ride on the coat-tails of the first energy crisis (1973 - and then the second in 1979) and the subsequent Federation-wide investment in the oil sands. Ernest Manning, Alberta's longest-serving premier, enjoyed the tail-end of the Second World War and the oil-strike in Leduc. Even Aberhart, who spent his first term fumbling the response to the Great Depression, was saved by the start of the Second World War. In sum, Alberta's political dynasties have benefited significantly from resource booms (obviously), but especially from coming to power just prior to them. It's been a crazy series of lucky breaks that also has global conflict to thank. 

Notley did not receive such a break during her (first?) term as Premier. Despite all expectations, Donald Trump did not start a third world war, and the Shale Oil Boom, which did so much real damage to Alberta's economic competitiveness, did not slack off. Alberta's premier industry was not yet saved by a foreign war, nor the collapse of its competitors. Instead, in a very real way, we began to see the effects of a world awash in oil (and growing in renewables too): whole oil producing countries could be removed from the supplier list (Yemen, Libya, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, just to name a few) without a corresponding spike in price. This would have been unthinkable in the 1990s, and when it happened in the 2000s, the price of oil hit record highs. Not this time. Not even ISIS could cause the global economy to crash. 

Kenney's UCP seems to be destined to share a similar fate. Part of this is because the world, just like when Notley and Prentice were premiers, is over-supplied with oil. As much as we hate to admit it, Alberta's oil is incredibly expensive to develop, and there simply isn't an apparent need for more of it. The Americans will still buy it when they want or need to, but oil produced in Canada's "fire-proof house" is no longer the Holy Grail of Energy. Another part of that problem is that renewable energy continues its march down the road to dominance. Renewables are cheaper, more secure, and at least for the moment, don't promise to destroy the planet. Their acceptance and utilization is growing with the realization of those facts. So, regardless of the global situation, Alberta's oil would be in an un-ideal place, and Alberta's government would be starved of the necessary rents and taxes it needs to function. We have a taste of this from the March 2020 budget, where the UCP doubled the deficit inherited from the NDP.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shot to hell any chance the UCP have of being saved by a resource boom. 2020 saw the price of our oil drop below $0 while resource rents plunged below University Tuition as an income stream. Lockdowns limiting the operation of bars and casinos further hit Alberta's finances, leading to an estimated $24B deficit - a record no matter how one measures it. The danger for the UCP is that this Pandemic continues for much of the rest of their term. Limited by a conservative fixed-date election law, they have only until spring 2023 to put the province back on the right track. Given that conservative estimates for the end of the pandemic are 2021-22, that may not be much time at all. 

2. Losing the Base

The UCP were elected on a wave of hope and anger. In the 2019 election, their party's first, the UCP became the first party in Alberta history to receive more than a million votes in an election, powered by high vote share (55%), and the highest voter turnout since 1982 (70%). People also donated to and volunteered for the party like crazy. The leadership contest that saw Kenney crowned leader saw claims of a membership of over 100,000. They easily overtook the NDP for the lead in provincial donations, and this stayed true for a time after the election. Albertans were giving their time, money and votes to the UCP. 

However, much has changed. While the party's membership list is kept secret, it wouldn't be abnormal for a party to shrink following a leadership campaign and successful election. That happens. Much has happened publicly though to doubt the vitality of the party. I started with discussion around a voter poll, and these polls for long have shown movement away from the UCP. The aforementioned was merely the latest (and worst). However, there are other public metrics, too. I won't discuss anecdotes like people talking in public or in the media (though those have grown more hostile too). 

Instead, we should look at the donor lists for the UCP and NDP. In sum, the UCP has come to rely on a shrinking number of big donors. Given the donation limits in Alberta law, the UCP fundraising peaked Q1 2020. Their leadership claims the Q2 drop was from COVID and a stop to fundraising. That may be, but it's very apparent too that many donors (117) maxed out their contribution in Q1, probably before tax season. The Q2 drop off was because, obviously, it would be illegal for them to contribute again. The NDP, in contrast, has a significantly longer donor list, with many more small donors than the UCP. Further, they didn't give up during COVID - their donations increased. It could be that hope and anger now resides with the opposition.

Losing the Right

Meanwhile, polling companies and political junkies are picking up on the rise of a separatist movement in Alberta. During the last election, the various separatist/far-right parties in Alberta polled a combined 1.5% of the vote. Currently, they have yet to coalesce around a single party or message, within the province or regionally. Based on recent experience, though, were you to poll discussing one party, or all of them, there seems to be a consistent result of 10% support for the separatist idea.  Clearly, this is an idea gaining adherents.

But why are these parties gaining in popularity? It's worth while, perhaps to compare the fortunes of Alberta's provincial-level separatists with their federal brethren. I'm sorry, the "mavericks." There is clearly a gaping gulf of support between the two. If you look at the most recent federal polls, within Alberta there is support ranging from 1-8% for "other." When you consider that other includes the PPC, who performed best nationally in Alberta, feel free to subtract whatever level of support you wish from this total. Now, even assuming that the remaining number are separatists, they either have no support at all - or half what their provincial counter-parts are receiving. Given the anger at Trudeau and the Liberal government in Canada, I think you'd feel right to be confused over why the numbers aren't the reverse.

In my humble esteem, it's because the provincial separatist support are in protest against the government - its just that the one in Edmonton is doing worse than the one in Ottawa. When you consider where separatist support is strongest - small-town, rural Alberta, it makes even more sense. Though the UCP's attacks on Alberta's metropolises has gotten a lot of attention, Calgary and Edmonton are better off, as hard as that is to believe, compared to their smaller colleagues. Bad UCP policy is driving doctors (and their businesses) out of vast swathes of the province. UCP cuts to social assistance hurt the places that need it the most - usually rural communities which are poorer than the cities. Jason Kenney hasn't magically resurrected the oil patch, and with it the fly-in/fly-out work which kept so many of these communities viable. Meanwhile, he has allowed insurance companies to raise rates with abandon - a big issue when you consider the bad record of rural Alberta drivers (not to mention Alberta's terrible history with natural disasters), and plunging availability of medical service in these regions. Lastly, and most significantly, the UCP's unilateral tax holiday on oil and gas companies (many of which are profitable already), has lead many rural municipalities to consider raising property taxes many times over, and laying off almost all their staff - not over time, but immediately. 

The economic situation in these regions was already worse thanks to the fall in oil prices. Driving up insurance and taxes, while driving out the medical sector (and possibly the public sector at large) is a sure recipe for disaster for these communities. The UCP clearly have calculated that they can afford to lose a chunk of their support in these communities and still win a majority. They are correct in thinking this: they won 70-80% support in many of these ridings in the last election. However, what is the tipping point? What level of support do the separatist parties need to get before they start flipping UCP seats? 

If you assume that 10% support is heavily concentrated in the rural third of the province (it would be weakest in Edmonton, next in Calgary, next in the other major cities), you may find they already have 20+% support. This is probably greatest in the south of the province. That can be a significant spoiler. That may not necessarily mean that a "rural" seat flips separatist, but it may mean that Lethbridge East and Sherwood Park goes NDP, while Banff-Kananaskis definitely does - a far worse situation for the UCP than losing a few seats or having a couple close calls with the Wildrose Independence Party.

Conclusions

In April 2019, the UCP went into the provincial election a Tabula Rasa, and were kept that way through their vague and empty platform. This cynical politics worked, as voters from the centre to the far-right could project their values onto the party. Now that the party has had some time to govern, that effect has disappeared. There is nothing unusual in this but for the scale of the movement: almost 20% of Alberta voters have deserted the UCP for parties on the centre, left, and more significantly, the right. 

While its usual practice in Canada for parties to win majorities in Canada with high-30s to low 40s in support, the same is not true in Alberta. We have never been a three-party province, or state. Oftentimes, we haven't even been a two-party province. Ominously for Kenney, when new dynasties rise in Alberta, it isn't in a wave of support, but a wave of wins. The usual breakdown for these changes is a mere 52-48 split. For Kenney, who personally, and whose party is polling in the low 40s at best, this is dangerous.

CODA: Reasons for Hope - UCP-wise

There are a few things that could help save the UCP government through to the end of its first term. I will briefly list those things out. 

My first saving grace is the continued survival of the Liberal minority government in Ottawa. The UCP has exercised the traditional Alberta practice of blaming Ottawa for everything, which is good politics here. However, the Liberals have, in spite of that, proven to be very generous and helpful to Alberta: buying and building the Transmountain Pipeline, paying for orphan well reclamation, and providing 100%+ of the aide to Albertans during the Pandemic. A conservative government in Ottawa would be harder for the UCP to attack politically, even while reducing the aid going to the struggling people of the province. With Trudeau in power, they get the best of both worlds: a target of their attacks and also their begging. 

Next, it is not beyond imagination to consider a possible final oil boom hitting the province. I know I mentioned earlier that this is unlikely due to COVID-19, but there are other possibilities. Much like 1973, 1979, 1991 and 2003, Alberta could benefit greatly from a major disruption to a major oil producing nation. In the past, it was revolution and war - which we shouldn't rule out as possibilities. It would have to be in a major oil producer, though, or affect many - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, or even the USA itself. The odds of such happening are not zero, or even close to that. Many people can foresee such conflicts afflicting one or all of the above. A conflict in the USA would be, in the short term, best of all for Alberta. But it doesn't have to be that. Vicious natural disasters - which are becoming more common thanks to climate change, could also shut down some of these countries or any given period of time. The USA's Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable in this respect.

Finally, the UCP are going into the next election as incumbents. One action they are certainly not going to take is to expand or re-organize the legislature after the next census. Edmonton will remain with 21 seats and Calgary with 26 no matter how much they'll have grown relative to the rest of the province since 2016. This will leave the UCP with 40 (OK, 39) relatively safe seats outside those cities. Their inaction on this file will be an easy sell: we won't be able to to afford to properly represent the two major cities in the Legislature. Lastly, there is the ever present possibility of vote-splitting on the left. In the UCP landslide in 2019, two seats were won in Calgary by the UCP if one is willing to blame votes going to the Liberals rather than the NDP, and that's even considering the Liberals got less than 1% of the vote (Currie and Falconridge). Should the Liberals, Greens or Alberta Party mount a serious (or even partly serious) campaign in the centre, the NDP could stand to lose more close races. This is much more likely than the UCP losing seats because of a split with the Separatists.

Alberta Election 2019: A UCP Landslide

It did not take long for the news agencies to declare that Jason Kenney's United Conservative Party had won the election held yesterday. I got an alert on my phone at 8:38, less than half an hour after the first results had come in.

I was not surprised to see the UCP form the government, and I think most people felt that was coming. However, they did much better than I anticipated. As of writing, they have won or are leading in 63 seats province-wide. They were able to expand their share of the popular vote beyond the 53% threshold hit by the PCs and WRP in the previous election. They were able to win seats all over Alberta, and often crushed the NDP in ridings some suspected to be closer. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, they crushed the opposition in general.

The Liberals won zero seats and got less than 1% of the vote. The Alberta Party won zero seats, though they got 9% of the vote. Perhaps most hilariously, the Freedom Conservative Party was utterly destroyed as a serious political entity - winning zero seats and getting fewer votes across the province than the Alberta Independence Party. Their leader, Derek Fildebrandt, was totally humiliated, repudiated, whatever you like - coming in a distant 3rd place with only 7.7% percent of the vote, and only slightly ahead of the Alberta Party, in his home riding.

Accordingly, the UCP have only to face a much reduced NDP in the legislature for the foreseeable future. It's my belief that this is the best possible outcome for them, as they will have an easier time dodging and dismissing criticism from the NDP than a coalition of other parties.

Whither the Alberta Party, and everybody else?

Further, the UCP may not need worry about the Alberta Party drawing away support in the elections to come. Though the Alberta Party was able to quadruple it's support in the popular vote, this wasn't enough to translate to seats, or even many strong showings. Greg Clark, the first person to be elected as an AP MLA, was handily defeated in Calgary-Elbow, coming in 2nd place with 32% of the vote. As far as I could tell, only party leader Stephen Mandel and former MLA Rick Fraser broke 20% support in their ridings. It is hard to foresee how the Alberta Party could build upon their support without even one MLA in the legislature. They will have no more profile, no more media coverage; no more attention at all really for at least for four more years!

So now that the election is over, the best insight we can get into the future may come from the Q2 and especially Q3 financial disclosure reports to Elections Alberta. I anticipate the UCP and NDP will maintain their support, at least relative to each other, but the real question I anticipate is what happens to the supporters of the other parties.

For reference, the Alberta Liberals raised $174,000 in 2018. The Alberta Party raised almost $600,000 in the same year. The Freedom Conservatives managed to draw almost $40,000. Curiously, no numbers were available for the Alberta Independence Party. But it's worth noting none of these numbers reflect any fundraising in 2019 - and the monetary support that went the Liberals and Alberta Party was pretty considerable, nonetheless. Where does this money go? Into the big parties, or into somebody else? Or does it stay in their pockets?

There are certainly more things to consider in the days to come. Thanks for reading!

By-election Time!

Well, Spring Break looms, so it looks like I finally have time to write what's on my mind. The world weeps. Coincidentally, today I can also vote in the advance polls for one of Calgary's two by-elections. To be honest this year I'm having an awful lot of difficulty choosing who I should vote for.

First of all, a shout-out to the Christian Heritage Party's Jeff Willerton (the "Real Conservative!") for putting out the most interesting campaign advertisements of this election. His posters were big, colourful and sturdy, and always left me wondering just where the CHP got all that money from. His brochures were also entertaining, and really helped my wife and I make up our minds. "Why did you keep this? Just to make me mad?" she asked of the brochure that came in the mail. I'm sure we'll be voting for someone else.

As regards the (fake?) Conservative Party, turns out one of my friends knows their candidate, Bob Benzen. Apparently he's a real nice guy, but just doesn't know anything about politics. I got the same impression from his campaign brochure. Also, I don't want to vote for a leaderless party, especially one so full of clown-shoe candidates like the Conservative Party's. This also excludes the NDP, I guess, though I must admit I know next to diddly about their folks. Go figure.

I even checked out the website of the "National Advancement Party of Canada." They have a lot of policy positions, and I went on to read a bunch of them, before I though, "what's the point?"

So, the Liberals or the Greens. Who to chose?

I generally agree with the Liberals the most, historically, and I know voting for them would make my dad proud. However, they already have a majority, and to be honest, while I understand why the new budget was the way it is, I'm still unimpressed. Deficits until 2055? No new taxes? Differed military spending? Let's be real here. The Liberals could have brought the GST back up to 7% and brought the government back into surplus by Christmas. They could have eliminated some BS-tax credits that only help the super-rich, but nope, not today! Now, I would be afraid of Trump, too, but I still think they could have done more, and better. Their candidate in my riding, Forsyth, doesn't seem to have many public positions beyond supporting the government, a trait I hated when the local conservatives ran under it and still do with everybody else. Having ideas like an individual should be a natural part of being an MP.

So, do I vote for the Green party? Honestly, I just might. I read their platform in its entirety back when I was in the army (wow, recent!) and honestly it impressed me. I sympathize with their issues, and really, they probably are on the right side of history on most of their opinions. I don't really know much about their candidate - I don't even remember her name at the moment - but I do know she spent years learning about Indigenous Canadians. I believe our relationship with our indigenous people is possibly the most important national issue in the country today, so this is a good thing. Lastly, Elizabeth May has been one of the best MPs in recent memory. Ultimately, maybe it's time I finally reward the Green Party with my vote.

What do you think? Thanks for reading!

Hindsight into the Future!

Yesterday a poll was published in Alberta. Unsurprisingly, it put the Wild Rose Party in the lead with 35% of voters supporting them. Nonetheless, the poll was a part of news stories that served to inspire this piece. So, let us review:

1. Somebody robbed the Wild Rose Party of some of its computers, and its membership data. This information is now being used to support Jason Kenney's leadership campaign.

2. The Provincial government reduced the donation cap from $15,000/$30,000 to $4000/year.

3. Federal government approved new oil pipelines, including the Kinder-Morgan pipeline to Burnaby, and generously credited the Alberta government for its leadership on climate change in making their decision.

4. The NDP are holding steady with 31% support in the latest public poll.

I feel I should address the latter before carrying on. People have a right to feel skeptical of this result, given that the last two polls put support at 19% and 15% respectively. However, I feel that history is on the side of the latest poll. A review of Alberta's elections going back to the days of Grant Notley shows that the Liberals and NDP polled in every election generally 35% to 50% of the electorate. As much as the conservatives would like to believe, there has always been a significant centre-left population within the province. One doesn't have to go back far to hear calls to unite the left in Alberta to oppose the PCs!

Given the likelihood of a Kenney victory, polls giving the PCs and WRP a combined support of roughly 75% pointed to a historic conversion to conservative politics that is without parallel. So polls that combined had the Liberals and NDP sinking below that 30% support threshold should be treated with skepticism.

So, on to the future...

Two and half years to go until the next election (in theory). A lot can happen. But there are things pointing in the direction of another surprise NDP success in 2019. Note that I didn't say win; I am not sure of that possibility, but the idea that the NDP are simply going to be wiped out in the next election I find increasingly unlikely.

The critics of the government have to deal with the reality that the NDP are already the highest grossing political party in the province. The banning of corporate donations crippled the PCs and Liberal parties, and the Wild Rose's much acclaimed ability to receive individual donations has already proved wanting. The dramatic reduction in the annual individual limit is going to yet another nail into the opposition parties, who have always benefited from the deep pockets of some select supporters. The NDP basically has almost three years to pad a donation lead before the next election, while the other parties struggle with declining revenue.

The other issue facing the opposition, particularly the WRP is the looming redrawing of the province's constituency boundaries. Alberta, contrary to popular belief, has long been one of the most urbanized provinces in the country, and an NDP government is much more likely to acknowledge that fact through action than anybody else. So, while the province's population continues to drift into the cities, it is likely that the seats will finally follow. While the PCs, NDP and WRP are all competitive in northern Alberta, the potential loss of seats in rural southern Alberta will do the WRP undoubted harm. To lose even two seats through redistricting here would wipe out 10% of their caucus, and this is a distinct possibility. To offset this they would have to do better in the cities, but they have always struggled to win there, a fact unlikely to change in North Calgary or Edmonton anytime soon.

Then there is the more sinister thing - Jason Kenney led implosion of the PCs. While destruction was always Kenney's stated intention, implosion is becoming a more apt word by the day. The reports of bullying, shenanigans and skulduggery emanating from the PCs can have no other effect. Jason Kenney will win the party leadership; there's simply no way he can't - the fix is in. And the fix is obvious. As much as the PC establishment is trying to make a fight of it, they are bound to lose as Kenney stocks the delegations with his supporters. Kenney always had a fine line to walk, though - he made it plain he wished to end the PC association, as he should have. However, he needed to keep its membership and supporters onside while this was happening, and here he is failing.

Many people have been comparing the takeover to what happened to the federal PCs over a decade ago. The comparison is not exactly apt - McKay surrendered his party to Stephen Harper after all. In any case, it needs to be remembered that the support they were expecting in the 2004 election did not exactly materialize - the Liberals won a minority. Indeed, the Conservatives have only won a single majority in the whole period I have been alive - so maybe there is a warning there.

Here I must admit I've sat on this article all weekend... and now more fuel for this fire.

The protest in Edmonton on Saturday only adds to my growing conviction that the conservatives are farting their future away. Some Albertans are whining that the media isn't covering the rally fairly. They are right - but their work is wrong. The media should be crucifying Chris Alexander for his wimpy reaction to the chants of "lock her up." Ezra Levant should be getting sued (again), for slander, and all the awful things said and done need to be exposed by media - print, radio and TV. That they've been generalizing what happened is a total disservice the province (another shock); but it is a credit to the people here that most people have noticed just how insane the whole thing was. Just like how the 2012 election was lost in a lake of fire, the 2019 election is probably going to boil down, in some way, to the sins the opposition has committed in the previous four years, the list of which grows longer and heavier by the day.

Thoughts on the US Election

This is going to be an unorganized rip through my thoughts on the US election.

Since the winner was a narcissist, I will begin with some ego-aggrandizement of my own. I predicted (not here, but on facebook) that Donald Trump would win the election, while losing the popular vote by over a million. The first thought is blatantly true (I had no idea he would win so much, though), while it appears the second thought may come true soon. Also, and this I felt essential, voter turnout was much, much lower than in 2012. Isn't it amusing to know Mitt Romney got more votes than Clinton?

Nonetheless, my thoughts are certainly with the protesters. It's hard to defend a man being elected in such a dubious way, and clearly the electoral college needs to be abolished. Get working on a constitutional amendment, now.

My other thought concerns the importance of messaging during an election. Here I will draw comparisons to the last two elections I voted in: Canada's last October, and Alberta's in April, 2015. I really think Hillary Clinton suffered for lack of a message; when during her concession speech, she said, "this was never about me," I had to laugh. Your election slogan was "I'm with her!" and beyond that, she had no ideas about the shape of things to come, just that she had more experience than Trump (which isn't hard. Arguably, so do I - at least I was in an actual military).

Experience can be good or bad. In Clinton's case, unfortunately, her experience resonated with Americans as being of the negative sort. It is ok to be sceptical of "experience" being a primary factor in hiring a politician anyway. While Americans wondered just who she owed debts to, I think historically to the disastrous governments of Lloyd George after WW1 and Winston Churchill in the 1950s. Experience isn't everything. Canada has enjoyed a relatively successful history of experienced leadership. If a Prime Minister served longer than two terms in office, they seem to do a good enough job to earn a place on our money.

Two-terms (8-9 years) seems to be a big barrier, especially to Conservatives, to break. Borden needed to leave office, having nearly destroyed the country (and conveniently fallen in with the British establishment). Mulroney resigned as the most unpopular Prime Minister ever, and last year, Stephen Harper went down to colossal defeat. With his cabinet members abandoning ship, Harper still charged into the election believing his experience alone would vanquish his rivals.

When the Liberals swept Atlantic Canada, I was surprised only that the NDP didn't win a seat. Having family from there, and keeping track of their affairs, it did not shock me that they universally rejected a party that patronised and insulted them. My neighbours here in Alberta, on the other hand, wondered just how dumb they could be. I hear echoes of this discourse in the aftermath of the American election.

Harper's record, outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan was pretty shit, and he should have known it. Those two provinces, insulated by oil economies, survived Harper's time as PM as the only two which enjoyed any real growth. His stewardship of the rest of the country was undeniably worse. British Columbia saw it's average annual income drop year after year. Economic decline in the rest of Canada was concealed by blowing up the housing market to titanic proportions. Now the country is worse off than the USA in 2007-2008, and the new Prime Minister is doing a great deal to try and diffuse it. So, campaigning on experience when most of the country hates you we must admit is a poor formula. That the Clinton and Harper campaigns couldn't believe the facts must point to a great amount of conceit in both groups.

As a last word on messaging, I would like to compare the "surprise" NDP government of Alberta to that of the perennial heirs-apparent, the Wild Rose Party. Notley's victory in April 2015 is, depending on your point of view, intensely correlated to the fact that she had a positive message that resonated with the province. The late Mr. Prentice was eternally trying to remove his foot from his mouth, and most importantly, the Wild Rose Party, didn't have a message for Albertans. Who can forget the debate, when Brian Jean successfully imitated a medieval monk with his mantra of "no new taxes." The NDP won because in April 2015, they appeared to be the only option.

So Donald Trump won, too. He acknowledged there was a problem in the way the USA was doing things. The people who had suffered from decades of de-industrialization and mergers and downsizing who spoke up and handed him power. This possibility was always present; it was the failure of the Democrats, and pollsters, and media, that they ignored the data they did not welcome.

Will they learn from this? Not by the looks of it.

Thanks for reading.

Book Review: Notley Nation

Notley Nation
By Donald Braid and Sydney Sharpe; Dundurn Books, 2016

As you might have guessed by now, I come from a very political family, and I have spent most of the last 20 years in Alberta. I returned to this province in 2010 - coincidentally the same year one may as well take as the starting point in the author's argument: that the successes of Justin Trudeau, Rachel Notley, and Naheed Nenshi all reflect the growing strength of a younger, more urban and more progressive Alberta, and Canada at large.

Accordingly, as someone who has been in Calgary long enough to remember the mayoral election of 2010 (and voted in it), much of the book is hardly a surprise. Of the 10 chapters, 9 are basically historical, while one is analytical. Therefore I feel the book is most valuable to the Canadians living outside of Alberta.

As a historical account, the book serves fairly well in taking a blow by blow approach to the decline of the Progressive Conservative Association, and the rise of Rachel Notley and the NDP. The coverage of events is a good deal more fair than the portrayal one would receive in Canada's newspapers - ironically, as Braid continues to be a reporter for the Calgary Herald/Sun/National Post. Braid and Sharpe do a wonderful job illustrating the comprehensive decline of the PCAA's relationship with the people of Alberta. It wasn't just that they were doing a bad job governing; it becomes quite clear the "association" no longer gave a hoot about its membership - only corporations. Truly, the impression one gathers is of a highly Corporatist political body.

As someone too young to know Premiers Lougheed or Getty, the historical diversions about these men is welcome. A standout chapter, though, is the story of Grant Notley, "the Social Conscience of Alberta," as a posthumous biography labelled him, and the upbringing of his daughter, the future Premier of Alberta. Their story is amazing in terms of their hardwork, dedication, and values.

The real hit in the book, however, is the unfortunately titled chapter, "Math is Hard," the analytical chapter discussing the changing role of women in politics, and just how important it is. This chapter was very illuminating to me, and served to impress on me how important gender representation truly is.

The only downside to the book is that Braid and Sharpe are occasionally too gentle on some of their subjects. In the aforementioned chapter, the authors provide a very good explanation for the terroristic internet traffic coming from Alberta's far right. However, they don't go far enough to discuss the obvious criminality and insanity of much of the content. I feel it worth noting just how frequently the female members of Notley's government have received death threats. They only mention one, and an early one at that.

Another weakness is their discussion of the media environment in Alberta; clearly this would be a conflict of interest for Braid, as he still works in it, but no story of the Alberta NDP government is complete without exploring the extremely hostile media environment they exist within. Braid himself is one of the few remaining voices of reason and decency within the mainstream media here - and his realistic and reasonable treatment of the economy and Oil business in Alberta will no doubt drive many readers crazy.

In sum, the book is a solid 4/5 - at least to me. If you happen to be an interested outsider, this is probably the best account yet of what has happened in Alberta since the retirement of Ralph Klein.

Thanks for reading.

Alberta Media and Politics

Historically, it is not unusual for provinces to be governed by a single party for decades at a time. Some of these dynastic governments delivered great and positive change not just to their province, but the country itself. Saskatchewan's NDP dynasty inspired our modern health care system. Ontario's Conservative dynasty of the 19th century established the power of the provinces over the federal government. Many others had delivered good economic and social growth. They won elections because they were good governments.

Alberta's 44 year PC government (1971-2015) was not of the same calibre. I have already castigated this government on previous posts, but I think its impossible to say that the PCs ever inspired a wise action inside or outside the province, at least after Lougheed. So, that said, I do not believe that the PC dynasty started off badly. Peter Lougheed was probably the best premier the province had. Conveniently, he left government during the depths of Alberta's 1980s recession; the premiership was then picked up by fellow Edmonton Eskimos alumni Don Getty. Lougheed died only a few years ago, his funeral attended by all his successors who had made a living ignoring  his advice on development.

Now, by 1993 it was not clear that the PC dynasty would survive. Alberta, like the rest of Canada, became terrified of its debt levels. The Liberals looked like they could win the election that year, promising deep cuts to the budget, but were narrowly defeated by Ralph Klein's PC team. His first four years were hardly free of scandal, but Klein's 1997 victory, I believe, can be considered the beginning of the end for the PC dynasty. In the absence of a real opposition, poor government and corruption became hallmarks of his administration; however, not only did people not care, he became the evermore popular "King Ralph."

Why was this?

My family has lived in Alberta for over 100 years. From them, and from my own experience, I can speak to one alarming phenomenon: the monopoly of mass-market media by right wing interests. This monopoly began, at least in Calgary, in 1980 with the demise of The Albertan newspaper. I would say this monopoly has only ended recently thanks to online citizen journalism, and in a physical sense, by the publishing of the Metro by the Toronto Star and Albertaviews magazine. These things have only had an effect in the past 10 years at most, so we can say that the Right dominated Alberta's mass media from 1980 to around 2005/2010.

This domination was embodied in the newspapers, in the talk radio stations, in local TV, and in magazines like Alberta Report and later, the Western Standard. In cities with more than one newspaper, the editorial angle ranged from soft-right to far-right (in both Edmonton and Calgary, represented by the Sun). Even the Universities, contrary to popular belief, presented a right-wing perspective, as they continue to do today, with various representatives of the "Calgary School" presenting their dubious arguments in favour of the neoconservative perspective. The disreputable Fraser Institute and its supply of titled minions is usually a conspicuously regular presence in the media, and so merits my honourable mention as a source of right-wing claptrap. Alternate views were limited, if at all, to the letters to the editor.

The only alternative to the mountain of neoconservative rhetoric that dominated the province for a quarter century lay in the province's publishing industry. There are many titles published during this period which illuminate the dubious successes of the province's leadership. However, the market for such books never proved significant enough to affect debate within the province. I suspect some books, like William Marsden's "Stupid to the Last Drop," sold better outside Alberta than within it.

The effect this monolithic media presence in Alberta can be seen in the ways Albertans remember the past. The National Energy Program is a misunderstood boogieman invoked to crush debate and fuel hate towards the East. Ralph Klein squandered the province's wealth, squandered its crown corporations, and acted like a buffoon, but is remembered as our lovable saviour. In contrast, the Federal Liberal government of Chretien is not remembered for slaying the deficit, but is thought to have increased it. Stephen Harper apparently never ran a deficit, either. The Sponsorship Scandal, which cost the country $150M and became another reason to hate the Liberals, had nothing on contemporary provincial scandals. but those remained forgotten or ignored.

Indeed, the province exhibits a memory of events almost totally at variance with history and reality. Why this is so can only be considered a product of the province's partisan press. All media sources slavishly promoted conservative interests and parties, and if it wasn't conservative - it wasn't good. The NDP were blamed for "ruining provinces" even though the Saskatchewan NDP government was probably the most effective in Canada in the 1990s, and almost certainly saved it (after the Conservatives had gone off to jail). The Liberals hated the west. Quebec steals our money. The Atlantic provinces do too. Alberta was the model for the whole country, damn the facts and damn reality! It's just everybody who voted against the Conservatives from 1993 on was too stupid to notice.

A very good example of the provincial media's lingering double standard is blatantly apparent at the moment. First, there is the Purchase Power Agreement scandal. If what the NDP alleges is true, which we have little reason yet to doubt, then the scandal should be yet another example of PC corruption. Instead, we have series after series of articles in all the Alberta papers trying to establish the incompetence, corruption, and bad faith of the current government. The Calgary Sun typically picked and chose its sources quoting people saying the government has little chance to win its lawsuit, when its Siamese twin, the Herald acknowledged other claims that its actually 50-50, or better. I can only assume the papers are looking out for our best interests, and not the interests of their corporate overlords.

On the other hand, Jason Kenney recently began his travelling tour of the province. His speech from the Legislature grounds was broadcast live across the province, and all the talk was about the possibilities in store for him, us, and ultimately, the defeat of the NDP. In other words, the return of our Golden Future. What went totally unsaid was the question of why a taxpayer paid Member of Parliament is spending all of his time campaigning outside of his riding, outside of election time, and in a different level of government altogether. That this is a basic ethics violation should not come as a surprise to the editors of Alberta's remaining newspapers (which are all basically the same one at this point), but remember, these were the people who endorsed the Wildrose Party and the Conservatives in the last provincial and federal elections, regardless of the effect on their readers.

While I have already mentioned how new forms of media, and new entities like Albertaviews helped break the right-wing monopoly in Alberta, I believe the real nail in the coffin was something much more ironic. While the PCs remained the sole right-wing option (of repute) in the province, there could be no criticism of them. This all changed after Premier Stelmach's royalty review. The province's oil industry turned the Wildrose Alliance from a southern, regional, rural fringe party to competitor. Now that there was a more corporate friendly party on the scene, Alberta's mass media began to do its job and hold the government to account. Stelmach is rather demeaned in provincial memory as an incompetent nincompoop sort of Premier. Alison Redford was basically the Antichrist.

However, the long awaited return to form was not without its issues. I found especially dubious the U of C economics professors using their lectures to tell students to vote Wildrose. But more significantly, Danielle Smith, former leader of the WRP and member of the "Calgary School," was married to the head editor of the Calgary Sun, coincidentally the party's biggest cheerleader. Such a conflict of interest remained unnoted, though I noted that they were the first news source to publicize a Wildrose lead in the 2012 election polls. Following her disastrous decision to abort the WRP in 2014, Danielle Smith found employment as a talk show host on Calgary's QR77. You can imagine her take on events.

During its heyday, the neoconservative leaders of the Province were able to effect a near-total echo chamber in Alberta discourse. Its effect on public memory can still be seen in the bizarre myths that still pervade and pervert the province's population. I do mean pervert: there is ample evidence both on the internet and on people's cars and shirts that don't just reflect a distaste for the new governments, but a vitriolic hate for them, and democracy itself. Unfortunately, it will be a long time indeed before the damage to our consciousness is healed, but I am hopeful. After all, Albertans rejected the "no new tax" and "big cuts" of the Wildrose Party in favour of reasoned answers and acknowledged realities with the NDP. That really is a sign of something to be celebrated.

Now all I can recommend from this point is to go read some history.

Thanks for reading.