A Trip Into Fantasyland: New Provinces for Canada?

As friends of mine know, to their dismay, I'm a fan of First Past the Post. I know its hardly perfect, but one of the problems it has that we can fix is scale. I don't believe it was ever meant - nor should it mean, an election with hundreds of thousands of voters, or even many more than 100,000. For FPTP to be representative and effective, I think riding sizes need to be as limited in size as possible (by population).

One can further examine the issue, and find that FPTP hides regional differences within provinces. Now that Canadian provinces, in some cases, are the size of small countries, why not encourage more representation, and more regional specialization, but dividing some of the largest ones into new smaller provinces?

As the title implies, it can't possibly work. But, it's fun to think about! To make this at least statistically grounded, I will try to use recent census data to estimate populations for these new provinces. Maybe, some of these proposals sound fun enough even for the government to try. To dream!

To begin, let's look at the more serious side of the exercise. Here's the one I think most likely:

1. The Province of Toronto. No constitutional protections for cities? Worry no more, Toronto. You get to be a city/province. Powers of taxation are yours. Expanded to include the whole inner ring of the Golden Horseshoe, this new province would have a population of 7,826,367 - second only to Quebec. This should translate to a comfortable 78 seats in the House of Commons, and to placate Alberta, given them six of Ontario's senate seats. Voila!

Now, the following are less likely, but could be entertained seriously, beginning with a division of Ontario into further provinces, like this:

2. "Ontario," with a capital at Kingston; follow Yonge Street north to the Ottawa River. The Canadian Shield forms the northern border. Based on the last census populations of Central and Eastern Ontario (less the population of Parry Sound District), this new province would have a population of roughly 2,950,000. That's 29 seats in the House of Commons, and let's say six senate seats.

3. "Huronia," with its capital at London; follow Yonge Street south to the St. Clair River. This roughly corresponds to the current region of Southwestern Ontario, which had a population of 2,583,544 in the last census. Here we would have 25 seats for the House of Commons, and six more senate seats, though, this comes with a realization that we've already blown through Old Ontario's total of 121 seats. Under-representation is bad, in my view, so let's start making more!

4. Northern Ontario, "Keewatin," with a capital at Sault Ste Marie. This is obviously the most possible of the three, being grounded in historical and curling experience. Without the district of Muskoka, it would have a population of 720,000. It would likely have French as an official language, and possibly Cree and Ojibwe. They would have 7-8 seats (special districts!) in the House, and the remaining six seats from Old Ontario's senate region.

We continue our journey of the imagination into more politically unlikely, but geographically sensible territory. After all, why base our new borders around old, arbitrary political decisions? Why not let geography decide?

5. "Keewatin:" a union of northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario (west of Lake Nipigon). Manitoba census division 19 awkwardly crosses Lake Winnipeg, but to include it, and divisions 21, 22, and 23, plus Ontario's Northwestern region, would create a province with roughly 320,000 people. English would be the dominant language, while Cree and Ojibwe would be significant enough to demand equal recognition. Thunder Bay would make for the most obvious capital, though Kenora would be more central.

6. "James:" a union of northeast Ontario and northwest Quebec (Abitibi-Temiscamingue). This would be a trilingual province with English, French and Cree recognition. The population of the region of Northeastern Ontario was 443,000 (less Muskoka District) in the last census, while the Quebec region of Abitibi-Temiscamingue had 146,717 inhabitants. I can't say how many people might be in adjacent lands worth including, but you'd likely get a province with 600,000 people - just more than Newfoundland.

7. "Peace:" a union of Northwestern Alberta with Northeastern BC. Census data for the BC regions of Peace River and Northern Rockies give a combined population of 68,000, while the Alberta census divisions 17, 18, and 19 have a population of 196,000, for a combined population over 260,000. It would have an economy based around farming, forestry and oil and gas, and seemingly already possesses a lot of cultural similarity.

8. Vancouver Island: once its own colony, Vancouver Island is a politically distinct, geographically separate part of British Columbia. Currently it has a population of 870,000, which is fast growing.

9. Interior British Columbia: what if you decided to make a province out of the parts of BC that lie between the Rockies and the Coastal Range? You would have a culturally and politically similar province with a population over a million. You could give Vancouver to Vancouver Island, say. 


Now, our journey isn't over. Last we will visit things that make sense but are politically impossible for one reason or another...

- Nunavik: a separate Territory for the Inuit of Quebec. The region, Nord-du-Quebec, has a population of roughly 45,000. Would probably have French, Inuktitut, and Cree official languages. Quebec would never dream of giving up the majority of its land mass and hydro power, however.

- Labrador: a separate Territory from Newfoundland. They would never countenance losing it and the hydro revenue. It would have a population of roughly 30,000, and would likely have Innu and Inuit, in addition to English, as recognized languages. To unite the Innu in a single territory, one could extend Labrador south to include the Quebec counties of Minganie-Le Golfe St Laurent and Sept-Rivieries-Caniapiscau, which would create a territory with 80,000 people - just smaller than PEI when it joined Canada as a province in 1873.

This concludes my trip into possible provinces. Maybe some of them make more sense than one would think. If so, leave me a comment.