A Dream of Sports

Though this is normally a politics blog, I have decided to release you ever so temporarily from your torment and suffering to indulge another passion of mine - thinking about Canadian Sports! Oh bliss! Oh sweet release!

Those of you who know me personally know I'm a Canadian sports fan. The CFL is my favourite league to watch, and in my life, I've enjoyed the success of Canadian teams and athletes in other sports. I have been especially struck by patriotism when Canadians have decided to start their own sports leagues. The first I can recall was the Canadian Baseball League, which, for one of my teenage years, flashed in and out of being, folding before the finish of its first and only season.

More inspiring has been the recent success of the Canadian Premier League. To my regret, I have been unable to attend a match yet, but I look forward to walking down 194th to the stadium at Spruce Meadows when the league plays again. If, the league plays again.

In this post, I would like to discuss the obstacles to the success of Canadian leagues, and how, I think, they can over come them.

To me, the biggest issue in Canada is our geography. Our major centres are separated by hundreds of miles - each - and the cost of travel between them is incredibly expensive. However, to be a "national" sport (and taken seriously), one needs a presence spread across multiple time zones. Otherwise, you are regional, or provincial - not to be taken seriously by the national media - and all media is "national." So, we had the example of the Canadian Baseball League, which had eight teams in five provinces, three time zones, two languages, and, technically, separated by an ocean (fine - it's just the Salish Sea, or as they called it back then, the Strait of Georgia).

Due to the presence of established ball clubs in Vancouver, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Quebec City, the CBL's premiere franchise cities were in Montreal and Calgary. All other CBL cities had populations below 400,000 - sometimes 200,000. To make matters worse, the Montreal franchise was never able to actually play in Montreal, instead spending its half-season in Sherbrooke. In theory, there is no problem with the selection of cities the league found itself in. They were all reasonably sized, regional centres with airports and a history of baseball fandom. However, the league couldn't attract sponsors, viewers, or fans, and collapsed after only a few dozen games.

For more info on this, here's an article from the Tyee: https://thetyee.ca/News/2004/04/05/Empty_Field_of_Dreams/

Anyway, one of the cardinal sins of the CBL was its ignorance of Canada's fundamental geographic problem: you need big money to overcome our great distances. The CBL had money, but nowhere near enough to cover business and baseball. It was the marquee Canadian business flop until Target. The Canadian Premier League, seemingly, has money, and is decentralized enough so that losses aren't overwhelming or concentrated.

The CPL has also had success luring "minor" Canadian soccer teams on-side; Edmonton played in a rival league, once, and Ottawa disappeared from a rival league, folded, for another club to replace them, and this time in the CPL. Their ambitions have been both higher and humbler, too. The CPL knows it can't bring Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal onside (yet), but its choice of host cities has been a top-notch complement to the MLS clubs. Further, they didn't go overboard with their choice of cities - though Halifax is distant, it is by a major airport, and all of its rival club cities are major regional hubs. Further, the Halifax club has been a raging (business) success.

Further, soccer teams are relatively cheap in terms of roster size, support staff, and equipment relative to many other sports. Hopefully, this will help ensure their long term success. Another element to this success will be further expansion - not just to promote the league in more cities, but to reduce travel costs between games, as well. The Canadian Junior Hockey Leagues function as well as they do thanks to: low salaries; long season; and low travel cost from short distances. Any successful Canadian league will have to have some combination of those three to make it.

So, on to the next indulgence: expansion discussion!

Here's how an expanded CPL could look to take advantage of geographic density. This could apply to start-up leagues in sports like Rugby, baseball, or just about anything else. You want geographic proximity and density to succeed. They give you a fanbase, and they give you rivalries. The CBL, for all its hype, lacked any natural rivalries. The following combination of cities or divisions may provide it. As a last note, which Soccer purists may hate, but relegation is an expense Canada simply cannot afford. Anyway:

Atlantic Division
This region is densely populated, but the most rural region of Canada. There aren't many cities that possess the combination of a large population, good demographic and economic prospects, or transportation connections. That leaves us with the following conclusion, that a professional league could have four teams in the following cities:
1. Halifax: the region's largest city and most important centre. It's growth is cancelling out the decline of the rural parts of the province, and may soon feature half the provincial population (undoubtedly, it is already home to the majority of the provincial economy).
2. Moncton: third largest regional city; fast growing centre of the Acadian population and New Brunswick's most significant city. Connected by land to Halifax and Saint John, and features a great, new stadium.
3. Saint John: largest centre of southern New Brunswick, and fourth largest in the region. It has been stagnating for some decades, but remains the business capital of the province.
4. St. John's, NFLD: second largest city in the region, and fast growing. Already about half the provincial population is within its CMA. Also, St. John's is fairly wealthy and home to a shocking amount of large, successful businesses. It's main issue is that it is expensive to fly to, though, and the ferry is long and expensive. Historically, teams in Newfoundland (hockey, especially), have had tonnes of support and still flopped, though the ongoing success of their Rugby team, the Rock, should inspire.

The relative "weakness" of other Atlantic cities, in terms of population stagnation/decline, size, economic power, and geographic isolation, mean there are few opportunities for feeder clubs in the region. However, should a league be a success, Prince Edward Island, Fredericton, King's County (NS), and Cape Breton may make sense as feeder club locations.

Quebec Division - East
Quebec is a large province, but its population is large and concentrated along the St. Lawrence River. This concentration has allowed the province to enjoy excellent, road, rail and air links - and all within a few hours drive from one end to the other. Further, the population is large enough that there remain numerous population centres, each with local identities, that are large enough to support teams outside of Montreal. This could allow for two competitive divisions operating in the lower end of Lower Canada, and another around Montreal. Let's look east, first.

1. Quebec City: second largest city, fast growing in population and economic power. There's a void the Nordiques left that needs filling.
2. Saguenay: though stagnant for the last few decades, it remains a major regional centre. Also, investments in hydro, natural resources and aluminum should keep the area viable for time to come.
3. Sherbrooke: the largest city in the Estrie region, it's a hub of over 200,000.
4. Trois Rivieres: also relatively stagnant, but still a major hub. Proximity to Quebec City and Montreal is an incredibly strong asset. During the last federal election, local politicians desired a high speed rail link to connect them to those centres. If Spain is an indication, such a link would dramatically revitalize the city and ensure its long-term prosperity.

Quebec Division - West
1. Blainville: representing the North Shore communities around Montreal
2. Laval: technically Quebec's third largest city, it is well connected to the rest of the province and has a good local identity.
3. Longueuil: represent the population of the region to the south of Montreal. 
4. Gatineau: large, growing, and would make for an awesome rivalry with Ottawa.

Ontario
Southern Ontario is Canada's economic and population heartland. It is densely populated and old. In the Canadian Premier League, there are three clubs: Hamilton, York and Ottawa, which is similar geographically to the CFL which has clubs is roughly the same locations. Even the NHL has considered teams in those three cities (substitute York for Toronto) or has, historically. Growth spilling out from Toronto, plus the development of the tri-city region means Ontario could host a multitude of clubs in large centres, all in close proximity - a luxury enjoyed in few parts of Canada.

North Division
1. Ottawa: National capital, second largest city in the province.
2. Kingston: relatively stagnant, but still vital.
3. Barrie: fast-growing exurb of Toronto.
4. Sudbury

Centre Division
1. Brampton
2. Missisauga
3. Scarborough
4. York

South Division
1. Hamilton
2. London
3. Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge
4. Niagara

Prairie Division
The Canadian prairies are the largest geographic region that any league will have to face. A drive from Edmonton to Winnipeg is roughly fourteen hours. It's another twelve to either Vancouver (from Edmonton) or Thunder Bay (from Winnipeg). Also, its population is very highly concentrated in the cities of Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg (according to Statistics Canada estimates, at least half of the region's population lives in these three cities and their metropolitan areas). Also, there are only five cities with populations above 200,000, meaning expansion possibilities are very limited.

However, the good news is that this area is rich, young, easy to traverse, and its major cities aren't major enough for major league teams outside of the NHL. Plus, ethnic diversity may enable lots of varied sports to thrive.

In a four team divisional set-up, you could have:
1. Calgary: largest city, richest city, and features a great airport and road connections. Sports teams have thrived here for years, with the exception of our ABA teams.
2. Edmonton: second largest and second richest, Edmonton is even better connected overland to all cities in this division. City has passionate sports fans.
3. Saskatoon (Saskatchewan): fourth largest city, but very fast growing, Saskatoon is becoming the metropole the province has always needed.
4. Winnipeg: third largest city, and featuring very stable and reliable economic and population growth, Manitoba's capital is a transport and business hub full of sports fans.

Possible Feeder Cities
1. Calgary = Lethbridge
2. Edmonton = Red Deer
3. Saskatoon = Regina
4. Winnipeg = Brandon/Westman 
I know Thunder Bay is bigger, but it's very isolated, and suffering a long-term economic and population decline. A team there may not survive long, whereas Brandon has a large rural hinterland to support it. 

British Columbia Division
British Columbia is large, with a strong economy and a growing population. It has three major population centres: Vancouver Island, Fraser Valley, and the Okanagan. Due to its mountainous Cordillera, the population density in the centres is very high for Canada, while also having allowed the development of some regional identities. Vancouver itself features teams in most sports leagues, but is only one of 20(?) cities in the Fraser Valley, many of which have different cultures and histories. Keeping with the four team divisional make up from earlier, I would place teams in BC (and outside of Vancouver) in:
1. Abbotsford: the hub of the region east of Vancouver, with a large, growing population and a distinct local culture.
2. Kelowna: centre of the fast-growing interior region of the Okanagan.
3. Surrey: the second city of the Fraser Valley, with a distinct local culture and identity.
4. Victoria: provincial capital and second city, hub of Vancouver Island.

Possible Feeder Cities
1. Abbotsford = Kamloops
2. Kelowna = Prince George
3. Surrey = Richmond
4. Victoria = Nanaimo

In conclusion, you have here the framework for a 32 team, 8 division league set up focusing on Canada's strongest economic, population and cultural centres - all while ignoring the centres of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal!

It may seem very pie-in-the-sky, but the survival of our junior leagues can attest that this could work. One day...