NDP Fails but Opportunity Emerges: the case of Alberta

(Begun October 3rd, 2021)

Following our latest Federal election, NDP partisans have been trumpeting the claim that their party was the only party that both won more seats and got an increase in the vote compared to 2019. That is true. The People's Party gained a lot more votes, but nowhere came close to winning anything (I suspect that might be all they want, anyway). The NDP won a net of one seat, while gaining +120,000 votes. That's something. However, what is the quality of their claim? 

We can look at a lot of qualifiers. First, look at their spending, which was significantly higher than in 2019. One seat and +1.8 percentage points in the popular vote? Hmmm... then there's the fact they actually lost seats in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. No pickups, only losses. That can't be good - they're hardly a national party, especially when you consider that half their caucus is now from BC. Their traditional base in Saskatchewan seems dead, buried and cold, as are others in Northern Ontario and interior BC. 

So, given that three parties saw declines in support - Liberals, Conservatives and especially Greens, the NDP don't have much to celebrate but one: the election of Blake Desjarlais in Edmonton Griesbach. He doesn't just flip a seat, but the seat of Kerry Diotte, one of the most embarrassing MPs in the country. More significantly, he points to a possible future, one where Edmonton is more orange than blue. 

In fact, the NDP came very close to winning Edmonton Centre, too - they were within a few thousand votes in a three-way-race. Elsewhere, NDP candidates combined with Liberals would defeat the CPC everywhere but Edmonton-Wetaskiwin - an urban/rural split riding that likely won't exist during the next election. Across the province, NDP vote shares went up 7.5 points - a greater amount than the PPC and Maverick gains put together. 

Given the increasing rightward shift of the CPC, I think a reckoning is due in urban Alberta. The province votes Conservative not because of values or interests, but identity. If the conservatives continue to mutate into the Canadian version of the "Know-Nothings," what appeal will they hold for the educated, cosmopolitan and wealthy citizens of Calgary and Edmonton? Less and less, I think. 

The NDP is best poised to take advantage of the opening space in Alberta. It is, at heart, a western protest party, albeit one grounded in left-wing politics. They are not the eastern-dominated Liberals, or the rural-and-white-dominated Conservative Party. The NDP better reflects the ideals and values of the province, as seen in the growing strength and support of the provincial party. As more and more Albertans fail to see themselves reflected in the Conservative Party, we should start seeing more of them finding a home with the NDP, a party comfortable with diversity, science, and complexity, like most Albertans. 

Were I an NDP strategist, I would be preparing for the next Canadian election with a plan to flip Edmonton Centre, Riverbend, Mill Woods and Manning. Yes, six Edmonton ridings. I fully think it's a possible goal.