In a mere 30 days, the membership of the UCP will decide the fate of Jason Kenney, and in all likelihood, the fate of their party as well. Kenney has gamed the leadership convention to the best of his ability, setting it in Red Deer, closing it to anyone (ie the vast majority of members) who can't afford to show up in person (at cost of hundreds or thousands of dollars and a weekend), and no doubt used his organizational skills to buttress his flagging support. Nonetheless, 4900 people have registered to vote, a sign most political junkies interpret to indicate his doom. However, this should not be seen as just another moment in the history of an Alberta dynasty, but a watershed moment that could break the UCP, possibly forever.
I want to explore the scenarios which will arise from the vote on April 9th. Most of my assumptions and conclusions will come from a simple heuristic of "then what?" Based on what I have observed of the Alberta conservative movement, I will do my best to anticipate the likely outcomes of each scenario, and more implausibly, their long-term impact.
Scenario 1: Jason Kenney's Decisive Victory
I'm beginning here as I believe this is the least likely scenario. What is a Jason Kenney decisive victory? It is one where a) he wins, and b) wins with enough support that it cows his opposition back into loyalty. Why is it unlikely? Given the leaked recordings with have, the margin of victory will have to be significant to overcome expectations of cheating.
Should this happen, this should ensure the status quo continues until the election in 2023. The right wing opposition to Kenney will continue, but will be marginalized. Further, the rally around the flag effect will ensure that an offshot of the party, the Wildrose Independence Party comes to nothing by the 2023 election, ensuring the race will be between a united UCP and the NDP. I fully expect the UCP to lose seats by the dozens in that election, but they may still survive with a narrow win.
Scenario 2: Jason Kenney's Narrow Victory
As stated above, we have secretly recorded audio from the organizers of the anti-Kenney campaign that, among other things, compare him to Joseph Stalin, call him a cheater and also a liberal. It is no surprise to followers of Alberta politics that things have been pushed to such extremes, and these opinions are no doubt more widespread than outsiders would expect. The "cheater" aspect is basically accepted wisdom since the RCMP have been "investigating" Kenney's leadership campaign for over four years. Was there wrong doing? Seems like everyone thinks so.
Given that a narrow Kenney win is suspect, especially given how he ensured the majority of the membership would be excluded, his legitimacy to continue on as leader would be absolutely gone, 50%+1 or not. I simply do not see his opponents accepting this result. So how will they deal with it?
The party will split. It won't split in the legislature, though. Kenney is considered too powerful to cross in the legislature. Just see how Loewen and Barnes haven't joined the WIP, but are instead awaiting their welcome back to the UCP (a distinct possibly to be honest). However, a scandalous Kenney win ensures a good chunk of the membership jumps ship to support the WIP as the "true blue" conservative option.
The WIP will no doubt have a number of high profile candidates in the looming election. Hoven, the recently disqualified nominee in Jason Nixon's riding comes to mind. There are others, elsewhere. They will benefit from a wellspring of fundraising (which will abandon the already weakening UCP), and will have the support of Alberta's far-right alternative media ecosystem, which is highly developed and influential. This development puts almost every rural Alberta riding in play while reducing the resources available to the UCP.
So what would this mean in the 2023 election? Given that the NDP are polling between 45-50%, the division of the right wing between the unpopular and corrupt UCP and the deeply fringe, but regionally popular WIP basically ensures an NDP landslide. The only question will be which conservative party survives this cataclysm.
Scenario 3: Kenney's Defeat
As should be apparent by now, the most powerful opposition to Jason Kenney outside of the NDP is a large bloc of far-right activists, which, due to Alberta's peculiar history are more common and influential than anywhere else in the country. Make no mistake though: the apparent winners in Kenney's defeat are not mainstream or popular themselves. A UCP government led by this group is not going to magically resurrect the party's fortunes or appeal. Indeed, Kenney's defeat could lead down two very different paths: one where the UCP's Calgary caucus ultimately defects, or one where the rural caucus leads an unpopular government further into disrepute or defeat.
Kenney's defeat will inevitably lead to his replacement by a more "conservative" candidate. The replacement will almost definitely be, ironically, Brian Jean, the man Kenney cheated in 2017. But what does that mean? Kenney is himself a fringe character in Canadian politics - his views on things like education, religion and history are those of an extremist. However, Jean has used his time out of office not to redefine himself as a pragmatist or thoughtful moderate, but as a more extreme leader than Kenney.
I fully expect Jean's premiership to be received warmly by the population of Alberta, at least initially. However, he will have months, or even a year to run the province, and I'm not sure many people will expect him to run the province any better than his predecessor. What sort of cabinet will Kenney form? Kenney has had a devil of a time trying to manage the deeply limited pool of candidates for ministerial rank. Will Jean keep those people in place? I can't imagine. He will have some favours and debts called, and we will no doubt see some deeply questionable people take over before long. Getson might be a bridge too far, but would Barnes, Pitt or Hanson be out of the question? I doubt it, and they'll be embarrassing the government every day until the LG dissolves the legislature.
The victory of the Jean wing of the party is the victory of the conspiracy wing of the party. The ideologues who think Climate Change is a fraud, COVID-19 a hoax, and any government service a form of communism. Kenney has been able (barely) to keep a lid on these people, but Jean, who we already know to be a weak leader will fail. Why? Because he's one of them. Alberta will find itself run by a government it would never, ever elect if given the choice, and a government that will never accept criticism or advice.
So, what happens to the Calgary caucus, that marginal group of endangered MLAs who represent the UCP in its most viable form? Are they going to be able to survive the year of rural grievance politics unleashed by Brian Jean? Most of them already know they are likely toast, though their prayers to the barrel of oil in the mind of every Alberta politician may give them hope otherwise. Without Kenney's influence in the party, to they stand post on the sinking ship, or will they abandon it? I think a few might take the latter route. The Alberta Party survives, and may yet become a home to a few disgruntled "moderates" trying desperately to salvage their reputation and post-political careers.
Regarding the 2023 election, this path is the UCP's likeliest for a strong or even victorious showing. There is no way the WIP takes off with Brian Jean and his ilk at the head of the party. A few MLAs might defect to the more moderate and respectable Alberta Party, but much like in 2015, it won't amount to squat in the long run. They will lose their seats to NDP challengers. However, the UCP might just salvage enough of Calgary's suburbs and rural Alberta to win a very weakened majority.
Am I Wrong?
Ok, yes, I realize I'm bullish on the NDP. One could accuse me of writing this out of a sense of wish fulfillment - but, are my observations different from what even UCP supporters are claiming? No, just my conclusions. It seems to me like the idea that they can unify the party and maintain enough support to beat the NDP is more wish fulfillment of their own. I don't see the logic. The party has outperformed our worst expectations - including most conservative's - and why on earth would that change with just a change of leader? There's too much rot and too much bad history for a year to make a difference. Even should they maintain unity for another year, there is too much baggage and too little competence to save them in Calgary and the Edmonton exurbs.