Angus Reid did the impossible and recently provided us a survey of over 500 Albertans! It has political types across the country looking on with amazement: the NDP and the UCP are tied. 338 just updated its model: the UCP with the inclusion of these numbers still win a majority, but much reduced from 63 to 48 - a mere five seats away from defeat. Lean Tossup, which tends to be the more dramatic aggregator, however, has the NDP and UCP win 43 seats apiece, with the Alberta Party picking up one, and thereby becoming the ultimate kingmaker. However, they acknowledge that this is a glitch - as the NDP are leading in their projections in Calgary Elbow. Therefore, we have the first aggregator putting the NDP in majority territory. How quickly the mighty are falling... When elected last spring, Jason Kenney looked the man to initiate a new glorious reign of Conservatism in Alberta. Almost everyone foresaw that this new dynasty would be his springboard to a tenure as Canadian Prime Minister. Now, his party's lead is going up in smoke, as is his own reputation and standing as the real leader of conservatives in Canada. In this piece, I'd like to look at some issues currently affecting the UCP and how this might affect them down the road.
1. COVID Curse
Jason Kenney is very likely going to be alike to Rachel Notley in a very unlucky way: their parties, when first elected to the legislature, did not or are not going to enjoy a resource boom. Ralph Klein's dynasty was cemented by a surge in the value of natural gas (and preserved, arguably, by America's War on Terror). Before him, Peter Lougheed got to ride on the coat-tails of the first energy crisis (1973 - and then the second in 1979) and the subsequent Federation-wide investment in the oil sands. Ernest Manning, Alberta's longest-serving premier, enjoyed the tail-end of the Second World War and the oil-strike in Leduc. Even Aberhart, who spent his first term fumbling the response to the Great Depression, was saved by the start of the Second World War. In sum, Alberta's political dynasties have benefited significantly from resource booms (obviously), but especially from coming to power just prior to them. It's been a crazy series of lucky breaks that also has global conflict to thank.
Notley did not receive such a break during her (first?) term as Premier. Despite all expectations, Donald Trump did not start a third world war, and the Shale Oil Boom, which did so much real damage to Alberta's economic competitiveness, did not slack off. Alberta's premier industry was not yet saved by a foreign war, nor the collapse of its competitors. Instead, in a very real way, we began to see the effects of a world awash in oil (and growing in renewables too): whole oil producing countries could be removed from the supplier list (Yemen, Libya, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, just to name a few) without a corresponding spike in price. This would have been unthinkable in the 1990s, and when it happened in the 2000s, the price of oil hit record highs. Not this time. Not even ISIS could cause the global economy to crash.
Kenney's UCP seems to be destined to share a similar fate. Part of this is because the world, just like when Notley and Prentice were premiers, is over-supplied with oil. As much as we hate to admit it, Alberta's oil is incredibly expensive to develop, and there simply isn't an apparent need for more of it. The Americans will still buy it when they want or need to, but oil produced in Canada's "fire-proof house" is no longer the Holy Grail of Energy. Another part of that problem is that renewable energy continues its march down the road to dominance. Renewables are cheaper, more secure, and at least for the moment, don't promise to destroy the planet. Their acceptance and utilization is growing with the realization of those facts. So, regardless of the global situation, Alberta's oil would be in an un-ideal place, and Alberta's government would be starved of the necessary rents and taxes it needs to function. We have a taste of this from the March 2020 budget, where the UCP doubled the deficit inherited from the NDP.
The COVID-19 pandemic has shot to hell any chance the UCP have of being saved by a resource boom. 2020 saw the price of our oil drop below $0 while resource rents plunged below University Tuition as an income stream. Lockdowns limiting the operation of bars and casinos further hit Alberta's finances, leading to an estimated $24B deficit - a record no matter how one measures it. The danger for the UCP is that this Pandemic continues for much of the rest of their term. Limited by a conservative fixed-date election law, they have only until spring 2023 to put the province back on the right track. Given that conservative estimates for the end of the pandemic are 2021-22, that may not be much time at all.
2. Losing the Base
The UCP were elected on a wave of hope and anger. In the 2019 election, their party's first, the UCP became the first party in Alberta history to receive more than a million votes in an election, powered by high vote share (55%), and the highest voter turnout since 1982 (70%). People also donated to and volunteered for the party like crazy. The leadership contest that saw Kenney crowned leader saw claims of a membership of over 100,000. They easily overtook the NDP for the lead in provincial donations, and this stayed true for a time after the election. Albertans were giving their time, money and votes to the UCP.
However, much has changed. While the party's membership list is kept secret, it wouldn't be abnormal for a party to shrink following a leadership campaign and successful election. That happens. Much has happened publicly though to doubt the vitality of the party. I started with discussion around a voter poll, and these polls for long have shown movement away from the UCP. The aforementioned was merely the latest (and worst). However, there are other public metrics, too. I won't discuss anecdotes like people talking in public or in the media (though those have grown more hostile too).
Instead, we should look at the donor lists for the UCP and NDP. In sum, the UCP has come to rely on a shrinking number of big donors. Given the donation limits in Alberta law, the UCP fundraising peaked Q1 2020. Their leadership claims the Q2 drop was from COVID and a stop to fundraising. That may be, but it's very apparent too that many donors (117) maxed out their contribution in Q1, probably before tax season. The Q2 drop off was because, obviously, it would be illegal for them to contribute again. The NDP, in contrast, has a significantly longer donor list, with many more small donors than the UCP. Further, they didn't give up during COVID - their donations increased. It could be that hope and anger now resides with the opposition.
Losing the Right
Meanwhile, polling companies and political junkies are picking up on the rise of a separatist movement in Alberta. During the last election, the various separatist/far-right parties in Alberta polled a combined 1.5% of the vote. Currently, they have yet to coalesce around a single party or message, within the province or regionally. Based on recent experience, though, were you to poll discussing one party, or all of them, there seems to be a consistent result of 10% support for the separatist idea. Clearly, this is an idea gaining adherents.
But why are these parties gaining in popularity? It's worth while, perhaps to compare the fortunes of Alberta's provincial-level separatists with their federal brethren. I'm sorry, the "mavericks." There is clearly a gaping gulf of support between the two. If you look at the most recent federal polls, within Alberta there is support ranging from 1-8% for "other." When you consider that other includes the PPC, who performed best nationally in Alberta, feel free to subtract whatever level of support you wish from this total. Now, even assuming that the remaining number are separatists, they either have no support at all - or half what their provincial counter-parts are receiving. Given the anger at Trudeau and the Liberal government in Canada, I think you'd feel right to be confused over why the numbers aren't the reverse.
In my humble esteem, it's because the provincial separatist support are in protest against the government - its just that the one in Edmonton is doing worse than the one in Ottawa. When you consider where separatist support is strongest - small-town, rural Alberta, it makes even more sense. Though the UCP's attacks on Alberta's metropolises has gotten a lot of attention, Calgary and Edmonton are better off, as hard as that is to believe, compared to their smaller colleagues. Bad UCP policy is driving doctors (and their businesses) out of vast swathes of the province. UCP cuts to social assistance hurt the places that need it the most - usually rural communities which are poorer than the cities. Jason Kenney hasn't magically resurrected the oil patch, and with it the fly-in/fly-out work which kept so many of these communities viable. Meanwhile, he has allowed insurance companies to raise rates with abandon - a big issue when you consider the bad record of rural Alberta drivers (not to mention Alberta's terrible history with natural disasters), and plunging availability of medical service in these regions. Lastly, and most significantly, the UCP's unilateral tax holiday on oil and gas companies (many of which are profitable already), has lead many rural municipalities to consider raising property taxes many times over, and laying off almost all their staff - not over time, but immediately.
The economic situation in these regions was already worse thanks to the fall in oil prices. Driving up insurance and taxes, while driving out the medical sector (and possibly the public sector at large) is a sure recipe for disaster for these communities. The UCP clearly have calculated that they can afford to lose a chunk of their support in these communities and still win a majority. They are correct in thinking this: they won 70-80% support in many of these ridings in the last election. However, what is the tipping point? What level of support do the separatist parties need to get before they start flipping UCP seats?
If you assume that 10% support is heavily concentrated in the rural third of the province (it would be weakest in Edmonton, next in Calgary, next in the other major cities), you may find they already have 20+% support. This is probably greatest in the south of the province. That can be a significant spoiler. That may not necessarily mean that a "rural" seat flips separatist, but it may mean that Lethbridge East and Sherwood Park goes NDP, while Banff-Kananaskis definitely does - a far worse situation for the UCP than losing a few seats or having a couple close calls with the Wildrose Independence Party.
Conclusions
In April 2019, the UCP went into the provincial election a Tabula Rasa, and were kept that way through their vague and empty platform. This cynical politics worked, as voters from the centre to the far-right could project their values onto the party. Now that the party has had some time to govern, that effect has disappeared. There is nothing unusual in this but for the scale of the movement: almost 20% of Alberta voters have deserted the UCP for parties on the centre, left, and more significantly, the right.
While its usual practice in Canada for parties to win majorities in Canada with high-30s to low 40s in support, the same is not true in Alberta. We have never been a three-party province, or state. Oftentimes, we haven't even been a two-party province. Ominously for Kenney, when new dynasties rise in Alberta, it isn't in a wave of support, but a wave of wins. The usual breakdown for these changes is a mere 52-48 split. For Kenney, who personally, and whose party is polling in the low 40s at best, this is dangerous.
CODA: Reasons for Hope - UCP-wise
There are a few things that could help save the UCP government through to the end of its first term. I will briefly list those things out.
My first saving grace is the continued survival of the Liberal minority government in Ottawa. The UCP has exercised the traditional Alberta practice of blaming Ottawa for everything, which is good politics here. However, the Liberals have, in spite of that, proven to be very generous and helpful to Alberta: buying and building the Transmountain Pipeline, paying for orphan well reclamation, and providing 100%+ of the aide to Albertans during the Pandemic. A conservative government in Ottawa would be harder for the UCP to attack politically, even while reducing the aid going to the struggling people of the province. With Trudeau in power, they get the best of both worlds: a target of their attacks and also their begging.
Next, it is not beyond imagination to consider a possible final oil boom hitting the province. I know I mentioned earlier that this is unlikely due to COVID-19, but there are other possibilities. Much like 1973, 1979, 1991 and 2003, Alberta could benefit greatly from a major disruption to a major oil producing nation. In the past, it was revolution and war - which we shouldn't rule out as possibilities. It would have to be in a major oil producer, though, or affect many - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, or even the USA itself. The odds of such happening are not zero, or even close to that. Many people can foresee such conflicts afflicting one or all of the above. A conflict in the USA would be, in the short term, best of all for Alberta. But it doesn't have to be that. Vicious natural disasters - which are becoming more common thanks to climate change, could also shut down some of these countries or any given period of time. The USA's Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable in this respect.
Finally, the UCP are going into the next election as incumbents. One action they are certainly not going to take is to expand or re-organize the legislature after the next census. Edmonton will remain with 21 seats and Calgary with 26 no matter how much they'll have grown relative to the rest of the province since 2016. This will leave the UCP with 40 (OK, 39) relatively safe seats outside those cities. Their inaction on this file will be an easy sell: we won't be able to to afford to properly represent the two major cities in the Legislature. Lastly, there is the ever present possibility of vote-splitting on the left. In the UCP landslide in 2019, two seats were won in Calgary by the UCP if one is willing to blame votes going to the Liberals rather than the NDP, and that's even considering the Liberals got less than 1% of the vote (Currie and Falconridge). Should the Liberals, Greens or Alberta Party mount a serious (or even partly serious) campaign in the centre, the NDP could stand to lose more close races. This is much more likely than the UCP losing seats because of a split with the Separatists.