Hindsight into the Future!

Yesterday a poll was published in Alberta. Unsurprisingly, it put the Wild Rose Party in the lead with 35% of voters supporting them. Nonetheless, the poll was a part of news stories that served to inspire this piece. So, let us review:

1. Somebody robbed the Wild Rose Party of some of its computers, and its membership data. This information is now being used to support Jason Kenney's leadership campaign.

2. The Provincial government reduced the donation cap from $15,000/$30,000 to $4000/year.

3. Federal government approved new oil pipelines, including the Kinder-Morgan pipeline to Burnaby, and generously credited the Alberta government for its leadership on climate change in making their decision.

4. The NDP are holding steady with 31% support in the latest public poll.

I feel I should address the latter before carrying on. People have a right to feel skeptical of this result, given that the last two polls put support at 19% and 15% respectively. However, I feel that history is on the side of the latest poll. A review of Alberta's elections going back to the days of Grant Notley shows that the Liberals and NDP polled in every election generally 35% to 50% of the electorate. As much as the conservatives would like to believe, there has always been a significant centre-left population within the province. One doesn't have to go back far to hear calls to unite the left in Alberta to oppose the PCs!

Given the likelihood of a Kenney victory, polls giving the PCs and WRP a combined support of roughly 75% pointed to a historic conversion to conservative politics that is without parallel. So polls that combined had the Liberals and NDP sinking below that 30% support threshold should be treated with skepticism.

So, on to the future...

Two and half years to go until the next election (in theory). A lot can happen. But there are things pointing in the direction of another surprise NDP success in 2019. Note that I didn't say win; I am not sure of that possibility, but the idea that the NDP are simply going to be wiped out in the next election I find increasingly unlikely.

The critics of the government have to deal with the reality that the NDP are already the highest grossing political party in the province. The banning of corporate donations crippled the PCs and Liberal parties, and the Wild Rose's much acclaimed ability to receive individual donations has already proved wanting. The dramatic reduction in the annual individual limit is going to yet another nail into the opposition parties, who have always benefited from the deep pockets of some select supporters. The NDP basically has almost three years to pad a donation lead before the next election, while the other parties struggle with declining revenue.

The other issue facing the opposition, particularly the WRP is the looming redrawing of the province's constituency boundaries. Alberta, contrary to popular belief, has long been one of the most urbanized provinces in the country, and an NDP government is much more likely to acknowledge that fact through action than anybody else. So, while the province's population continues to drift into the cities, it is likely that the seats will finally follow. While the PCs, NDP and WRP are all competitive in northern Alberta, the potential loss of seats in rural southern Alberta will do the WRP undoubted harm. To lose even two seats through redistricting here would wipe out 10% of their caucus, and this is a distinct possibility. To offset this they would have to do better in the cities, but they have always struggled to win there, a fact unlikely to change in North Calgary or Edmonton anytime soon.

Then there is the more sinister thing - Jason Kenney led implosion of the PCs. While destruction was always Kenney's stated intention, implosion is becoming a more apt word by the day. The reports of bullying, shenanigans and skulduggery emanating from the PCs can have no other effect. Jason Kenney will win the party leadership; there's simply no way he can't - the fix is in. And the fix is obvious. As much as the PC establishment is trying to make a fight of it, they are bound to lose as Kenney stocks the delegations with his supporters. Kenney always had a fine line to walk, though - he made it plain he wished to end the PC association, as he should have. However, he needed to keep its membership and supporters onside while this was happening, and here he is failing.

Many people have been comparing the takeover to what happened to the federal PCs over a decade ago. The comparison is not exactly apt - McKay surrendered his party to Stephen Harper after all. In any case, it needs to be remembered that the support they were expecting in the 2004 election did not exactly materialize - the Liberals won a minority. Indeed, the Conservatives have only won a single majority in the whole period I have been alive - so maybe there is a warning there.

Here I must admit I've sat on this article all weekend... and now more fuel for this fire.

The protest in Edmonton on Saturday only adds to my growing conviction that the conservatives are farting their future away. Some Albertans are whining that the media isn't covering the rally fairly. They are right - but their work is wrong. The media should be crucifying Chris Alexander for his wimpy reaction to the chants of "lock her up." Ezra Levant should be getting sued (again), for slander, and all the awful things said and done need to be exposed by media - print, radio and TV. That they've been generalizing what happened is a total disservice the province (another shock); but it is a credit to the people here that most people have noticed just how insane the whole thing was. Just like how the 2012 election was lost in a lake of fire, the 2019 election is probably going to boil down, in some way, to the sins the opposition has committed in the previous four years, the list of which grows longer and heavier by the day.