Social media is blowing up with accounts of the ongoing Texas GOP covention. In addition to eroding democracy and civil rights, the Texas Republicans are openly planning seccession. Now, I'm old enough to know that this isn't the first time. Even I, in distant Alberta grew up hearing that "they were allowed to." Regardless of the merits or demerits of this convention, which will no doubt be dissected by scholars of authoritarianism and fascism well into the future, I feel I can do what no one else is: what if they did it? What if Texas secedes?
1. It will be incomplete.
Everyone seems to think if Texas goes, the whole thing will go. Why? Why would Beto O'Rourke's homeland of El Paso join a sovereign Texas? Just look at a map, or voting patterns, or anything else. El Paso is closer to New Mexico politically, and geographically, than the heartland of Texas. Why would the Hispanic and Catholic Rio Grande want to stay in a WASP supremacist state? Imagine how Austin would react... If Texas breaks away, it would be much like the Upper South during the Civil War - there would be breakaway regions and rebel and loyalist areas within it.
That's just accounting for areas that would never go along with it. This can't possibly be a popular policy, however dominant the Texas GOP is politically. One can imagine there's a multiplicity of of "moderate" Republicans who would never countenance such a disruptive move, and they would sit on the sidelines or remain loyal to the Federal government. A good example would be the US Army's 2 Corps, stationed at Fort Hood. Given that Texas would only secede with a Democratic victory in 2024, these soldiers would follow orders from Washington.
2. It will be copied
What everyone has picked up on is that Texas secession drives the final death nails into the viability of the Republican Party (imagine how unpopular they'd be be association, too!). So, look at another map: why would Texas leave by itself? Wouldn't Louisianans rather be a part of a new "conservative" Texas nation? Wouldn't Arkansas? Oklahoma sure as hell would, and adjacent counties in neighbouring states will wish the same, just like the "Greater Idaho" movement in the Pacific Northwest. These states will experience the same issues though with loyalist regions, particularly cities and probably Indian reservations being unwilling to leave.
Depending on the success of secessionists in other states, the rebel wave coming from Texas may just wind up recreating the old Confederacy.
3. It will not be sovereign
Given the factors explained above, or implied, a new Texan Republic poses a threat to both of its much larger and stronger neighbours. To the USA, a new Texas Republic would be destabilizing, to the body politic, economy, and population. If it is allowed to be a success (however unlikely that would be), one would assume its influence and borders would spread outward. Further, a disrupted border in Texas (as if they could secure it) would pose even bigger risks to American sovereignty and security. Accordingly, it is in American interests to support local loyalists and reimpose the authority of the Federal government as quickly as possible.
The Americans won't be alone. It will be irresistible to the Mexican government to intervene to the north. The population of Latinos in Texas is too large, and too proximate to ignore. Especially should these separatists do what everyone fully expects: ethnic cleansing (I'm not sorry, but "deportations"), exclusion from citizenship, property and political rights, not to mention the collapse of the state economy and food supply. They will be morally and politically motivated to send support and aid. But there is worse to come...
4. It will be a narcostate
For, you can bet when those Federal border guards don't get paid, they will either be compromised by bribes or desert their posts. Worse, they may face the fate of many border guards along the opiates highways of Asia: intimidation and murder. Mexican drug cartels will flood across the border like a breaking dam. Racist, armed volunteers "guarding the border" won't stand a chance against whichever hardened killers strike north. The world will laugh at them as they bleed out; but this will be a serious handicap to either an independent Texas or restored state.
For here is the fallacy of the separatists exposed: they are small government absolutists. They will form a weak state that will be exploited and compromised swiftly by aggressive cartels. They are also so ignorant they'll have no idea how to fight back. Volunteers roaming unsupported out in the deserts of West Texas will be hunted down, and given the mess the secessionists would make of the state, the Cartels might even be welcomed by bringing stability and predictability back to the south - maybe even prosperity, too. Don't laugh. That was Afghanistan, more than once.
5. Conclusion
So, what is transparently a last ditch effort to secure the power of a shrinking White, Christian minority would almost certainly implode with disastrous consequences. At best, they would crater the Texan economy and become a pariah state. At worst, they'd be a drug-ridden narcostate in the middle of the USA with no laws, peace or security.
